Media Big Bang

Governing Camp Should Follow Democratic Procedure

Everything seems to repeat in a decade-long cycle in Korea these days: Broadcasting workers went on a strike Friday for the first time since 1999.

What drove the TV journalists and program directors into the street this time were the government-promoted ``seven media laws,'' which eventually aim at allowing newspapers and big businesses to own TV channels offering broadcast news ― a complete network station, in other words.

Officials of the government and ruling Grand National Party say the law reflects global trends of ``media convergence,'' in which cross-ownership of newspapers and broadcasters is a common move to expand markets and sharpen industrial competitiveness.

This logic is hard to refute for those familiar with the modern media industry, except that Korea has its own peculiar situation that makes it difficult to just import and try foreign systems. For instance, there are numerous newspapers and broadcasting stations in the United States, but Korea has just a handful of national papers and five ― or three in terms of ownership ― terrestrial broadcasters.

In addition, U.S. media ownership rules set a strict limit on the size of media companies subject to takeover by other firms to prevent industrial concentration and forces each area to maintain a certain amount of news supply sources to ensure diversity in public opinion.

The government-ruling party proposals, devoid of any system for checks and balances, is likely to result in a free-for-all ``media big bang'' in the relatively small domestic media market, leading to the domination of print and electronic media markets by some chaebol or the three major newspapers collectively called ``Cho-Joong-Dong'' after their initials.

If such turns out to be the case, the conservative conglomerates and big papers will be able to control up to 80 percent of the nation's public opinion, which in turn would hold sway over most elections here. Some governing camp officials' ``public'' remarks that they lost the previous two elections because of progressive broadcasters back up such suspicions.

Media convergence is an industrial trend and the increasing alliance between like-minded political parties and media outlets is a political trend in many countries, so one cannot say this should not happen in Korea.

Still, the way the governing camp is pushing its media agenda is definitively lacking in due democratic process. Even many GNP lawmakers say they have not been given opportunities to present their views, with some of them just ``handing over their seals'' without looking at the bills' drafts. In short, the GNP is railroading a bill worked out by a handful of officials in a closed room, against which the opposition legislators are vowing to fight till the end.

In a way, the parliamentary paralysis is directly related with partisan competition to snatch influential media outlets, as politicians are bound to excessively depend on opinion-manipulating machines when representative politics do not function normally.

For them, the people, as consumers of news articles and TV programs, were outside the question from the start. As various surveys show about 60 percent of people are against the takeover of network stations by big businesses and large papers, the governing camp should start from the ground up by taking a more democratic process.

If things continue as they are now, many Koreans will have to watch ― or join in on ― ``Candlelit Vigil-Season 2'' next year.


• If the discussion falls through and the ruling party lawmakers try to do things on their own, we will block them by all means, she said. (출처: The Korea Herald)
“대화가 결렬되어 우리당이 단독으로 법안 처리를 강행하려 할 경우 한나라당은 모든 수단을 동원해 그러한 시도를 봉쇄할 것이다.
• Parliament had already deferred the handling of the bill twice last year in the face of harsh labor opposition. (출처: The Korea Herald)
국회는 거센 노동계의 반대에 부딪쳐 이미 지난 해에 두 차례 법안의 처리를 연기했다.
• The ruling Uri Party and the main opposition Grand National Party yesterday agreed to delay settling the three controversial reform bills to an extra parliamentary session in April. (출처: The Korea Herald)
열린우리당과 한나라당은 어제 3개의 개혁법안 처리를 4월 임시국회로 미루기로 합의했다.
• Going by previous records, it is almost certain that lawmakers call for an extra one-month session to deal with unresolved legislative items. (출처: The Korea Herald)
과거 경험으로 볼 때 국회의원들이 미해결 법안 처리를 위해 한달간의 임시국회 소집을 요구할 것이 거의 확실하다.
• While delaying the bills, Uri floor leader Chung Sye-kyun and GNP`s Kim Deog-ryong agreed to discuss, review and settle the three bills - repeal of the anticommunist National Security Law, probing the nation`s past and tighter inspections on private schools - as actively and thoroughly as possible in April. (출처: The Korea Herald)
법안 처리를 유보하면서 열린우리당 정세균 원내대표와 한나라당 김덕룡 원내대표는 국가보안법 폐지안, 과거사 진상규명법, 사립학교법 등 3개 개혁법안을 4월 임시국회에서 적극적이고 철저하게 논의, 검토 및 해결하기로 합의했다.
• The parties need to begin discussion of these matters as soon as possible if the Assembly is to complete its business before its scheduled closing on Dec. 9. (출처: The Korea Herald)
정기국회가 예정대로 12월 9일에 회기가 끝나기 전에 이들 법안 처리를 완료하려면 가능한 한 조속히 이런 사안들에 대한 논의를 시작할 필요가 있다.
• In the last special session of the National Assembly, parliamentarians delayed the handling of government-initiated bills on non-regular workers in the face of vehement opposition from labor and failed to reach an agreement on how to reform the national pension scheme. (출처: The Korea Herald)
지난번 임시국회 회기중 국회의원들은 노동계의 거센 반대에 직면해 정부가 발의한 비정규직 법안 처리를 연기했고 국민연금 개혁 방안을 놓고 합의에 이르지 못했다.
• With the government making last-ditch efforts to deal with the long-held bills during the parliamentary session, the nation`s major labor groups plan to stage a series of protests starting from this weekend. (출처: The Korea Herald)
정부가 이번 국회 회기중 오래 지연되온 법안 처리를 위해 마지막 노력을 다함에 따라 국내 주요 노동단체들은 이번 주말부터 잇단 항의 집회를 벌일 계획이다.
• GNP`s Park said her party will not tolerate the ruling party having its own way without the GNP. (출처: The Korea Herald)
박 대표는 우리당이 한나라당을 무시하고 단독으로 법안 처리를 강행하는 것을 좌시하지 않을 거라고 말했다.
• But with the GNP`s firm position of delaying the reform bills and focusing on the bills related to people`s livelihood which are already laid before the standing committees, Uri stepped back and managed to reach an agreement with its opponent. (출처: The Korea Herald)
그러나 개혁법안 처리를 유보하고 이미 상임위에 산적한 민생 법안 처리에 중점을 두자는 한나라당의 강한 입장으로 열린우리당은 한 발 물러서 개혁법안 처리를 유보하기로 합의를 보았다.
• A bill cannot get to a plenary vote until it passes through the relevant committee, but a parliamentary speaker can directly present the bill for voting if the panel is tardy in dealing with it. (출처: The Korea Herald)
법안이 해당 상임위를 통과하지 못 하면 본회의에 상정될 수 없으나 상임위가 법안 처리를 해태할 경우 국회의장이 직권으로 법안을 표결에 부칠 수 있다.
• “Our struggle yielded some positive d the handling of the bill on temporary workers. (출처: The Korea Herald)
“우리의 투쟁은 비정규직 법안 처리와 관련해 상당한 긍정적인 결과를 낳았다.
• The KCTU, one of the nation`s two umbrella unions which withdrew from the tripartite panel in 1999, had decided earlier to seek dialogue within the Korean Tripartite Commission on the controversial bill on the recruitment and protection of temporary workers. (출처: The Korea Herald)
이에 앞서 1999년 노사정위원회를 탈퇴한 국내 양대 노조단체 중 하나인 민주노총은 논란의 비정규직법안 처리 문제를 놓고 노사정위원회 내에서 대화를 모색하기로 결정한 바 있다.
• But chances are good that the bill will be ratified as the leaders of the four main political parties agreed last week to deal with it this week. (출처: The Korea Herald)
그러나 4대 정당의 대표들이 지난 주에 이번 주 처리에 합의함에 따라 이 법안이 비준될 가능성이 높다.


[영문] Bleak economic picture emerges from new data

유희석 xixilife@hotmail.com 2008-12-25 08:25:54







Wido Rivera cleans the window on the Bloomingdale's store Christmas display December 23, 2009 in New York.

A series of gloomy economic reports Wednesday showed consumers holding tight to their wallets with job losses expected to mount in the months ahead.

There was one glimmer of good news, however. Lower gas prices and widespread holiday discounts are giving consumers greater buying power. Consumer spending, when adjusted for those price drops, rose last month after five months of declines, the Commerce Department said.

Late Wednesday, the Federal Reserve granted a request by the financing arm of General Motors to tap the government's $700 billion rescue fund, bolstering GM's ability to survive.

The Fed said it had approved GMAC Financial Services' request to become a bank holding company. That designation makes GMAC eligible to receive a portion of the bailout fund and get emergency loans directly from the Fed.

Analysts had speculated that without financial help, GMAC would have had to file for bankruptcy protection or shut down.

Even though consumer spending, adjusted for inflation, rose in November, economists don't expect consumers to ramp up spending anytime soon. In part, that's because companies in a wide range of sectors have been laying off workers.

November's inflation-adjusted increase in spending is "a temporary, one-month aberration in the downward trend of consumption," said Brian Fabbri, chief economist at BNP Paribas.

Without adjusting for inflation, the Commerce Department said consumer spending fell by 0.6 percent in November, the fifth straight month of decline.

Separately, the Labor Department said the number of Americans who filed initial claims for unemployment benefits rose to the highest level in 26 years, though the labor force has grown by about half since then.

New claims for jobless benefits jumped to a seasonally adjusted 586,000 in the week ending Dec. 20, from an upwardly revised figure of 556,000 the previous week.

A Labor Department analyst said auto-related layoffs were a key factor behind the rise in jobless claims. The four-week average of initial claims, which smooths out fluctuations, rose to 558,000. That's the highest since December 1982, when the economy was emerging from a steep recession.

The elevated level of new jobless applications is one of several signs that the labor market has deteriorated fast in recent months. The Labor Department said earlier this month that employers cut a net total of 533,000 jobs in November, sending the unemployment rate to 6.7 percent, highest in 15 years.

The financial markets took the news in stride. The Dow Jones industrial average closed up nearly 49 points, to about 8,468.

The economy has been mired in recession since last December, dragged down by declining home prices and clogged credit markets. Consumers have lost trillions of dollars in household wealth as the stock markets and home prices have sunk this year.

In another report released Wednesday, the Commerce Department said orders for large manufactured goods dropped by 1 percent, less than the 3 percent economists had expected.

The November decline was led by a huge drop in orders for aircraft and a smaller drop in autos. Excluding the big decline in transportation, total orders rose 1.2 percent in November, the best showing since June.

Mass layoffs are taking place in a wide range of industries. Industrial conglomerate Textron Inc. on Tuesday said it has cut 2,200 jobs, while technology services provider Unisys Corp. said Monday it will eliminate 1,300 jobs. Sovereign Bancorp Inc.'s bank unit said last week it is laying off 1,000 employees.

In the meantime, federal regulators are moving to sell the remnants of failed IndyMac Bank before year end, mopping up from the second-largest bank failure this year.

It was unclear Wednesday whether the government would sell off IndyMac as a whole or in pieces. The Pasadena, Calif-based lender, which specialized in loans made with little down payment or proof of assets, failed in July as the U.S. housing market bubble collapsed.

Rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell to a record low for the second straight week, causing refinancing applications to surge to the highest level in more than five years, a month after the Federal Reserve pledged to channel billions to prop up the sinking U.S. housing market.

Freddie Mac, the mortgage company, reported Wednesday that average rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages dropped to 5.14 percent this week, down from the previous record of 5.19 percent, set last week. The rate was the lowest since Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey began in April 1971 and the eighth straight week of declines.

By Christopher S. Rugaber (AP)

Banks to help carmakers in restructuring efforts

SEOUL, Dec. 28 (Yonhap) -- Domestic banks are expected to help troubled carmakers that engage in worthwhile restructuring efforts and have future growth potential, financial sources said Sunday.

The general guidelines outlined by lenders like the state-run Korea Development Bank (KDB) come as some local carmakers are feeling the pinch of the global economic slowdown that has adversely affected sales in both local and overseas markets.

"Carmakers have started to make requests about possible support, but before aid is given, they must streamline operations," a KDB spokesperson stressed.

Of South Korean carmakers, Ssangyong Motor Co. and GM Daewoo Auto & Technology Co. are the most hard-pressed for funds, although the latter still has about US$600 million in syndicated loans that it can take out under a deal reached with financial institutions in 2002.

Ssangyong said it will hold talks with its union members, creditors and Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp., its main shareholder, to find middle ground to save the company.

The company, whose production line is geared to make sport utility vehicles, has not been able to pay its workers this month, with rumors circulating in the stock market that it may file for bankruptcy in January.

In the third quarter of this year, the company lost 28.2 billion won ($21.2 million), marking its fourth consecutive quarterly loss. Last month, the automaker's sales plunged 63 percent from a year earlier to 3,835 units, causing management to temporarily halt work to cope with the rise in inventory.

Other carmakers, including Hyundai Motor Co. and Kia Motors Corp., have not requested assistance and are not facing any imminent liquidity problems, although the country's largest carmakers have cut back on production in the face of weak demand.

The South Korean government and financial regulators, meanwhile, said that they cannot actively help carmakers since such assistance conflicts with World Trade Organization guidelines.

The Ministry of Knowledge Economy said any decision to help companies depends on creditors, adding that Seoul can only take steps to cut taxes, support financial institutions and offer limited support for the research and development of eco-friendly vehicles.

Reflecting this, financial regulators said they are considering steps to help financial companies who can provide financial services to consumers who want to buy new cars.

This roundabout tactic will cause the least trade friction with other countries since it is similar to measures being implemented by the U.S. Federal Reserve Board to help the embattled General Motors Corp., regulators said.

(2nd LD) Hanwha's takeover of Daewoo Shipbuilding can be delayed one month: KDB

SEOUL, Dec. 28 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's state-run Korea Development Bank (KDB) said Sunday it can delay full implementation of a deal to sell Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering Co. to Hanwha Group by one month, easing concerns that the contract may be derailed.

Hanwha signed a preliminary deal in November, with KDB to buy a 50.37 percent stake in the world's No. 3 shipbuilder for an estimated 6 trillion won (US$4.6 billion), and full payment to be made by late March. Citing worsening financing conditions, however, Hanwha asked KDB on Tuesday to extend the payment deadline or accept payment in installments.

On Friday, Hanwha said it is necessary to conduct due diligence on the shipbuilder before signing a formal takeover deal due on Monday, hinting at its hope to delay the deal.

"The takeover contract should be signed on Monday in accordance with the preliminary agreement. But given the impact of the successful completion of the deal on the local economy, KDB can delay exercising its rights until Jan. 30, 2009," KDB said in a statement.

These rights include penalizing Hanwha for failing to implement its part of the deal on pre-set dates.

In return for the delay, KDB requested that Hanwha do its best to raise money by selling its own assets.

"But if the Hanwha consortium asks KDB to buy part of the conglomerate's assets at reasonable prices and conditions, KDB could consider cooperating in Hanwha's efforts to raise funds," the lender said. The consortium consists of Hanwha Group., Hanwha Chemical Corp. and Hanwha Engineering & Construction Corp.

KDB, however, added that it will exercise its rights as a seller, including taking guarantee deposits even before the deadline if Hanwha does not fulfill its requirements.

The lender stressed that while it is willing to give more time, it could not accept Hanwha's offer to make payment in installments or adjust the takeover price.
"Although KDB could buy part of Hanwha Group's assets, the takeover price will remain intact," Chung In-sung, a senior executive director at KDB, told reporters. "Hanwha also should make full payment by the end of March as planned.

Meanwhile, Hanwha welcomed KDB's decision, saying that KDB seemed to consider financing difficulties facing Hanwha amid the worsening financial markets. "But additional negotiations are necessary to address the current obstacles surrounding the sale of Daewoo Shipbuilding."
Hit by global financial turmoil, Hanwha has been facing difficulty in raising money through the sale of its holdings in real estate and Korea Life Insurance, the nation's No. 2 life insurer, market watchers say.

Hanwha, with interests from explosives to shopping malls, is seeking to expand into new businesses such as oil tankers and deep-sea drilling structures to boost earnings growth.

Daewoo Shipbuilding was placed under a debt rescheduling program in August 1999 after its parent Daewoo Group collapsed under heavy debt.




Korea's Q2 consumer spending slows to worst level in a decade: report

SEOUL, Dec. 28 (Yonhap) -- South Koreans' consumer spending in the second quarter sank to the worse level unseen since the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis and gloomy economic outlooks are expected to offset positive effects of tax cuts, a report showed Sunday.

Local consumers' spending patten in the second quarter was similar to that of the fourth quarter of 1997 when private spending sharply weakened as the country was rocked by the Asian financial crisis, according to a report by the Korea Institute of Finance (KIF), a private think tank.

"Even if their income increases, consumers would expand savings more than spending," Park Jong-kyu, a senor researcher at the institute, said in the report. "In this situation, the effect of proposed tax cuts which benefit high-income earners would be limited in boosting domestic demand."
The report comes as the South Korean economy grew 0.5 percent in the third quarter from three months earlier, the slowest expansion in four years as export growth declined amid sluggish domestic demand.

According to the central bank, consumer spending grew a mere 0.1 percent in the July-September period and it is estimated to have declined 1.3 percent in the fourth quarter.

South Korea plans to increase government spending including tax cuts by 14 trillion won (US$10.7 billion) next year as part of efforts to stimulate the sluggish economy.

The government is aiming to achieve economic growth of around 3 percent in 2009 by expanding fiscal spending. But the Bank of Korea, the central bank, predicted that Asia's fourth-largest economy will grow just 2 percent next year, down from an estimated 3.7 percent advance for this year.

"A recovery of consumer spending will only come after overall conditions sparking jitters for consumers improve," Park said, adding that the government should implement policies in a timely manner.



. Korean media warns of further deterioration in ties with S. Korea

SEOUL, Dec. 28 (Yonhap) -- North Korean media warned Sunday the communist state's relations with South Korea will further deteriorate next year if Seoul sticks to its "confrontational policy" toward Pyongyang.

Inter-Korean relations have chilled since conservative South Korean President Lee Myung-bak took office in February, vowing to get tough on Pyongyang. Lee maintains that the South will help the North only when the communist regime gives up its nuclear ambitions.

Lee's policy is a sharp reversal from the "sunshine policy" of engaging North Korea that his two liberal predecessors advocated for a decade.
North Korea has accused the South of failing to honor two summit deals calling for massive investment in the North that were reached by North Korean leader Kim Jong-il and Lee's two predecessors.

"If the Lee Myung-bak government continues to push for its confrontational policy next year, the North-South relations will further deteriorate," said the North Korean Web site "Uriminjokkiri."
The North's media described the South Korean government's refusal to honor the summit deals as a "touchstone" that led to frayed inter-Korean ties.

Two South Korean-run sightseeing tours to the North and daily cross-border train service were suspended this year in retaliation for what Pyongyang calls Seoul's "confrontational" policy toward it.

The halt of the train service, along with restricted border crossings, mean that all cross-border projects -- with the exception of the Kaesong industrial complex -- have been halted. The industrial park located in the North's western border city is home to nearly 90 small- and medium-sized South Korean plants employing some 35,000 North Korean workers.



Large percentage of listed companies risk bankruptcy: think tank

SEOUL, Dec. 28 (Yonhap) -- A large percentage of listed companies are at risk of bankruptcy as the economic slump affects sales and access to funds, a local think tank said Sunday.

The LG Economic Research Institute (LGERI) said as of late September, 39.8 percent or 628 of the 1,576 non-financial companies listed on the benchmark Korea Composite Stock Price Index and over-the-counter KOSDAQ market are suffering from problems.

It said the average Z-Score for companies whose fiscal years end in December was 2.22. This is higher than the average 1.59 score tallied in 1998, when South Korea was suffering from the Asian financial crisis, but lower than the 3.03 reached in 2005.

Numbers exceeding 2.67 mean the company is healthy, while those below 1.81 are interpreted as danger signs.

The Z-Score, developed by U.S. economist Edward Altman in the late 1960s, is a tool to predict overall health and possible bankruptcy within two years by checking multiple variables. Some scholars have claimed that the formula is over 70 percent reliable.

The LGERI said a worrisome development is that the number of companies at risk grew rapidly toward the end of the year as the country's overall economic and export growth entered negative territory compared to the year before.

The degree of risk is greater for KOSDAQ-listed companies, smaller companies and those that rely heavily on exports, it added.

However, it said 32.1 percent of large conglomerates received low scores, while 39.4 percent of companies that mostly sold products on the domestic market had low Z-Scores.


정부가 마지막날 230원 끌어내려…지나친 시장 개입으로 부작용 초래
환율 終價 관리…환란때는

외환위기 직후인 1997년 12월31일.당시 서울 외환시장에서 원•달러 환율은 전날보다 264원80전 오른 1680원에 거래를 마쳤다. 한국이 '국가 부도' 상태에 빠져 국제통화기금(IMF)으로부터 긴급 구제금융을 받는 상황에서 원화 가치는 바닥을 모르고 떨어질 때였다. 원•달러 환율이 연일 치솟는 게 너무도 자연스러울 때였다.

하지만 다음날 아침 외환딜러들은 한동안 눈을 의심해야 했다. 31일자 시장평균환율이 자신들이 아는 '31일 종가'보다 230원이나 낮은 1450원에 고시됐기 때문이다. 정부가 외환시장 밖에서 대규모 매매거래를 성사시키는 방법으로 환율을 관리한 결과다.

외환시장 관계자는 "당시 정부가 국책은행 등을 동원해 외환시장 밖에서 낮은 환율로 장외거래를 성사시키는 방식으로 시장평균환율을 떨어뜨렸다"며 "딜러들 사이에 '황당하다'는 반응이 많았다"고 말했다.

정부가 당시 연말 환율 관리에 나선 이유는 지금과 마찬가지다. 환율 급등으로 기업들의 환차손이 눈덩이처럼 불어나는 것을 막기 위해 인위적으로 시장평균환율을 떨어뜨린 것이다.

그렇다면 정부는 올해도 10여년 전과 같은 방식으로 시장평균환율을 큰 폭으로 떨어뜨릴 수 있을까. 외환시장 전문가들은 '그럴 가능성은 낮다'고 분석한다. 당시와 지금은 상황이 다르다는 점에서다. 당시는 외환시장이 자유화되지 않았고 시장 규모도 작아 정부가 환율을 좌지우지할 수 있었다.

하지만 지금은 외환시장이 개방돼 있고 국제적으로 '보는 눈'도 많다. 이런 상황에서 정부가 10여년 전처럼 드러내놓고 시장평균환율을 떨어뜨릴 경우 잘못하면 '환율 조작국'으로 찍히는 등 한국의 대외 이미지가 나빠질 수 있다. 특히 최근 한국과 통화스와프 계약을 체결한 미국과 중국 일본은 한국이 통화스와프 자금을 '환율 방어'에 쓰지 못하도록 하고 있다.

전문가들은 이에 따라 정부가 앞으로 외환시장 폐장까지 남은 이틀간(29일과 30일) 장내에서 '미세조정'을 하는 방식으로 연말 환율 종가를 관리할 가능성이 높은 것으로 보고 있다.

주용석 기자 hohoboy@hankyung.com

< 용어풀이 >

○시장평균환율(Market Average Rate)＝거래량을 감안한 가중평균 환율이다. 가령 특정일 원•달러 환율이 1000원에 10억달러，1100원에 10억달러가 각각 거래됐다면 이날 시장평균환율은 1050원((1000원×10억달러+1100원×10억달러)÷20억달러)이다. 12월 결산법인의 올해 결산에 적용되는 환율은 외환시장 폐장일인 오는 30일 거래로 산출되는 시장평균환율이며 다음날인 31일 고시된다.



"한화, 대우조선 인수에 특혜줄 수 없다"
산은 "대금납부 조건 완화 못해" …사실상 최후 통첩
한화"진일보 했지만 추가 협의 필요" 다시 고민

대우조선해양인수•합병(M&A) 조건을 완화해 달라는 한화그룹의 요청에 대해 산업은행이 조건부 수용이라는 카드를 내놨다. 본계약 체결 시점을 한 달 미뤄주겠지만 대금 완납 시점은 연장해 줄 수 없다는 것이다. 앞으로 한 달 후 본계약을 맺고 내년 3월30일까지 인수대금 6조여원을 내지 않으면 계약을 파기할 수밖에 없다는 입장이다. 이에 대해 한화는 "산은의 방침은 진일보한 것이지만 난관을 풀기 위해서는 추가 협의가 필요하다"는 입장을 내놨다. 이 때문에 대우조선 M&A 성사 여부는 여전히 불투명해 보인다. 일각에서는 산은의 이번 방침은 사실상 최후통첩이나 다를 바 없고 한화는 남은 기간 자금 마련이 쉽지 않기 때문에 계약 파기 가능성이 상대적으로 더 높다는 관측을 내놓고 있다.








◆산은, 한화의 요구 한 가지만 수용

㈜한화한화석유화학 한화건설 등 대우조선 인수 컨소시엄 3사는 지난 26일 긴급 이사회를 열어 대우조선 인수 조건과 관련한 요구사항을 결의했다. 본계약 체결 시점을 늦춰주고,인수대금 납입을 최장 2~3년간 분납토록 해 달라는 것이 한화측의 요청이었다. 이에 대해 산은은 본계약 체결 시점 연기라는 한 가지만 수용했다. 나머지는 모두 거부했다.

본계약 체결 시점 연기 역시 엄밀히 말하면 한화측의 요구를 있는 그대로 받아들인 것은 아니다. 한화는 "본계약 일정을 3~4주의 세부실사를 마친 이후로 미뤄 달라"고 요청했지만 산은은 "실사와 본계약 체결과는 관련이 없으며 다만 대우조선 M&A가 국가경제에 미치는 영향을 감안해 한 달간 연장해줬다"고 설명했다.

한대우 산은 기업금융4실장은 "자칫 한화요구를 받아들일 경우 특혜 논란이 발생할 수 있다"고 말했다. 인수대금 납입 시점을 늦춰주는 것은 MOU의 핵심 사항을 변경하는 것이기 때문에 한화측 요구를 들어줄 수 없다는 것이 산은의 입장이다.

◆한화"인수조건 바뀐 게 없다"

산은의 조건부 본계약 연기 입장을 전해들은 한화는 당혹감을 감추지 못하고 있다. 26일 3개 계열사가 이사회 결의를 통해 배수진을 쳤지만 얻은 게 하나도 없다는 분위기다. 본계약 한 달 연기로 시간은 벌었지만 현재의 자금시장 환경에서 산은이 못박은 내년 3월30일까지 인수자금 완납을 충족시킬 뾰족한 방법이 없다는 설명이다. 어쨌든 대우조선 인수 협상을 위해 산은 측에 돌렸던 '공'은 다시 한화측에 넘어왔다.

한화고위 관계자는 "산은이 방침을 밝힌 만큼 당사자간 추가협의가 필요할 것으로 본다"며 원칙적 입장을 밝혔다. 본계약 시기만 연기됐을 뿐 대우조선의 정밀실사 가능 여부와 산은측이 제시한 한화그룹의 보유자산 매입 등이 실제로 어느 정도 이뤄질 지 알 수 없기 때문이다.

◆계약파기 수순밟나

산은이 본계약 시점을 한 달 연기했지만 M&A 파기 가능성은 여전하다는 관측이 지배적이다. 산은이 지난달 14일 체결한 양해각서(MOU) 조항을 준수할 것이란 원칙을 강조했기 때문이다. 한화가 법적 구속력이 있는 이사회 결의를 통해 배수진을 친 데 대해 산은이 원칙 고수 입장으로 맞받아치면서 한화는 더욱 궁지로 내몰린 형국이다.

한화는 현재 인수자금 마련 실패를 기정사실화하고 있다. 외환은행 하나은행 농협 등 MOU를 체결하기 전 6500억원씩 자금을 대기로 확약했던 금융기관들이 자금 사정 악화를 이유로 모두 발을 뺐고 인수 참여를 희망했던 국내외 전략적 투자자(FI)들도 협상 자체를 꺼리고 있다.

이런 상황에서 산은이 인수자금 지급 조건 완화를 거부，한화는 보유자산의 무조건 매각 빼고는 선택할 카드가 없어졌다. 그렇다고 대우조선 인수 강행을 위해 보유자산 및 우량 계열사를 시장에 내놓을 수도 없는 상황이다. 한화관계자는 "그룹 내부에서 대우조선 인수에 대한 회의론이 강하게 일고 있다"며 "가격이 폭락한 현 시점에서 대우조선 인수대금을 위해 보유자산 및 우량 자산을 팔 수는 없다"고 말했다.

산은은 그러나 남은 기간 중 한화가 최선의 자구 노력을 기울인다면 산은이 자산 매입 등의 방식으로 지원하는 만큼 M&A가 성사될 것이라고 보고 있다.

손성태/박준동 기자 mrhand@hankyung.com
[EDITORIAL]Worse than inflation

The government and the Bank of Korea are saying they are willing to use all means possible to ease the credit crunch and put the distressed economy back on track. Should the economic crisis get out of control despite all their efforts, they would certainly print money - a possibility to which neither the central bank nor the government has referred in explicit terms yet.

The actions that have been taken since the collapse of Lehman Brothers on Sept. 12 are truly mind-boggling. The central bank has slashed its benchmark rate by 225 basis points to a historical low of 3 percent. It has also supplied 11.2 trillion won in funds to financial institutions by buying treasuries and other securities from them.

Ensuring an easier access to loans in foreign currencies is another mission for the government and the central bank. As such, they have injected, or have committed themselves to injecting, a total of $55 billion into the foreign exchange market. In addition, the Korean government has concluded currency swap deals with the United States, Japan and China, each amounting to $30 billion, which will serve as backup facilities.

If these measures prove to be insufficient, domestic banks will have to turn to the government for debt guarantees. To help them borrow money from abroad, the Korean government has committed itself to $100 billion in debt guarantees.

In addition to all these monetary policy measures, the government is set to incur a sizable budgetary deficit, increase spending on public works projects and encourage corporate investment by cutting corporate taxes.

The government and the central bank are taking these extraordinary actions in the belief that inflation is no longer a concern. They also believe it would not be as risky to allow deflation to run its course unchecked as it would face the threat of post-crisis inflation.

Few dare to voice a contrary opinion. That is understandable, given that some economic think tanks project the domestic economy to contract in 2009. The economic crisis is deepening despite the huge amount of liquidity provided by the government and the central bank.

Commercial banks are hoarding cash, instead of making loans, at a time when the government and the central bank are pumping liquidity into the financial markets. Blame cannot be leveled against them - they claim that they have no other choice as victims of debt deflation.

A substantial portion of their loans is turning into bad debts. An increase in nonperforming assets is undermining their soundness, as measured by the Bank for International Settlements` capital adequacy ratios. No wonder they are holding cash, the safest asset in times of trouble.

Against this backdrop, the government is planning to establish a $20 trillion won fund in January with investments from the central bank and institutional investors. The fund will be used to buy stocks and bonds from the banks.

If the plan to provide the banks with a cushion against losses and writedowns works as well as the government intends, the average capital adequacy ratio of the banks is projected to rise by 2.6 percentage points from 10.86 percent at the end of September. As the banks regain health, they will be pressured to help speed up the economic recovery by making loans to corporations and consumers.

At this juncture, the government may regard worries about post-crisis inflation as a mere luxury. But a more responsible government would commission its economic think tanks to work on how to mop up excess liquidity when the economic recovery has gained momentum. Inflation needs to be tamed before it gets out of control and becomes hyperinflation, which is no less damaging than deflation.


Cash injections fail to reach citizens
Even as the nation`s central bank has injected some 20 trillion won ($15 billion) into local banks since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September, the fresh capital has not benefited firms and households, industry sources reported yesterday.

According to the Bank of Korea`s data, local banks have neither lowered their interest rates on par with the central bank`s key interest rate cut nor expanded lending to firms faltering from a cash shortage.

Corporate loans extended by the nation`s commercial lenders in November were put at 3.5 trillion won, down from 7.3 trillion won in October, data at the BOK showed. During the first 18 days of this month, corporate loans issued by the nation`s top four commercial lenders grew by 1.8 trillion won, almost the same as 1.9 trillion won in November.

Loans extended to small- and medium-sized firms, which carry higher risks, dropped to 148.9 billion won in December, from 1.8 trillion won a month earlier.

Jung Sung-tae, a senior researcher at the LG Economic Research Institute said that banks are not actively circulating the new capital in fear of a credit crunch of their own.

"The market seems to have recovered temporary liquidity due to capital injection by the central bank, but the new money is not really circulating in the market as banks try to reinforce their capital base and apply stricter standards for new loans. Their interest rate cut is not enough considering the key rate cut either," he said.

Market watchers have pointed out that the real economy sector is still suffering from high interest rates applied to loans, even though the Bank of Korea has lowered its key rates by 2.20 percentage points to 3.0 percent since October. Rates for corporate loans extended to SMEs dropped by only 0.86-1.06 percentage points to 6.80-7.00 percent during the same period.

Rate of three-year maturity corporate bonds, for example, fell by a meager 0.93 percentage point to 7.98 percent in the November to December period, during which the BOK lowered its key rates by 1.75 percentage points.

While commercial lenders lower their interest rates, households` burden to pay back their debt is not easing as the changed interest rates are applied to housing loans with a delay of three months.

The nation`s top four lenders have posted the lowest interest rates for housing loans, with Woori Bank lowering annual interest rates for housing loans by 1.80 percentage point to 5.16-6.46 percent from the end of October, offering the lowest rate since February 2006.

Banks such as Kookmin, Shinhan and the Korea Exchange Bank have also lowered their rates by up to 1.92 percent to 5.00-7.33 percent during the last two months.

In the meantime, banks lowered their rates for deposits by over 2 percentage points during the same period to an annual average of 5.10 percent.

The real gross national income, which reflects the actual purchasing power of the population, dipped 3.7 percent in the third quarter of this year, recording the largest drop since the January-March period of 1998, when GNI dropped 9.6 percent, the BOK`s data showed.

By Jeong Hyeon-ji


연말 특명…환율 1300원대 허물어라
고환율 따른 환손실 땐 기업•은행 실적 악화
외환당국, 달러 풀며 총력전…연초 급등 우려도


정남기 기자







올해 원-달러 환율 마감을 앞두고 외환시장이 극도로 민감한 장세를 보이고 있다. 연말 환율에 따라 개별 기업과 은행의 실적이 수천억원씩 달라질 수 있기 때문이다. 최근에는 외환당국이 적극적으로 환율 안정에 나서면서 저가 달러 매수세력과의 공방이 벌어지고 있다.
28일 금융권 관계자들의 말을 종합하면, 정부와 한국은행은 지난주부터 달러 매도물량을 늘리고 은행과 공기업에 달러 매수 자제를 요청하는 등 연말 환율 안정을 위해 다각적인 노력을 펼치고 있다. 이에 따라 이달 중순 1200원대까지 하락했다 지난 23일 1338원까지 올랐던 환율은 26일 다시 1299원으로 하락했다.
외환당국이 시장 개입에 나서는 것은 연말 환율이 1300원대의 높은 수준에서 마감되면 기업과 은행이 큰 규모의 환손실을 보기 때문이다. 기업과 은행들은 외환시장 폐장일인 30일 거래를 가중평균해 31일 고시하는 기준환율을 바탕으로 외화 자산과 부채를 원화로 환산한 뒤 결산을 한다.
한 시중은행 회계부장은 “환율이 오르면 대부분의 기업과 은행의 손실이 커지는 것은 불가피하다”며 “외화자산이 많은 은행이라도 파생상품 손실이 더 커 결국 손해를 보게 된다“고 말했다.
대부분의 국내 기업들은 외화자산보다 외화부채가 많아 환율이 오르면 부채 규모가 급증하고 이자상환 부담도 늘어나게 된다. 한은이 이달초 1624개 상장•등록 기업을 대상으로 발표한 3분기 기업경영분석을 보면, 지난 9월말 현재 국내 기업들의 순외화부채(외화부채-외화자산)는 413억4천만달러에 이른다. 9월말 환율이 1207원이었던 것을 감안하면 연말 환율이 1307원만 돼도 4조원이 넘는 추가 외화환산손실을 입게 된다.
키코와 같은 파생상품 손실도 환율에 따라 춤을 추고 있다. 금융감독원이 파악한 키코 가입 487개 수출기업의 손실은 환율이 1090원이던 지난 8월말 1조7천억원이었으나 환율이 1291원으로 상승한 10월말 3조2천억원으로 급증했다. 파생상품 손실이 급증하면 시중은행의 국제결제은행(BIS) 기준 자기자본비율도 크게 하락하게 된다.
이 때문에 정부, 한은, 은행들 사이에는 환율 안정을 위한 공감대가 형성돼있다. 외환당국의 적절한 시장개입과 은행들의 매수 자제로 환율을 안정시키자는 것이다. 한은 관계자는 “연말 환율이 안정돼야 한다는 데 대해서는 일정한 컨센서스가 형성돼 있다”고 말했다.
그러나 시장 개입에 따른 부작용도 우려된다. 내년 초 그동안 미뤄놨던 수요가 몰리면서 환율이 일시적으로 급등할 가능성이 있다. 시장 개입에 따른 외환보유액 감소도 불가피하다. 외환당국이 30일까지 달러를 계속 풀 것으로 보이기 때문이다.
특히 폐장일인 30일에는 환율 하락을 원하는 외환당국의 의지와 막판에 달러를 확보하자는 매수세가 겹치면서 극도로 혼잡한 장세가 펼쳐질 것으로 예상된다.
조희봉 하나은행 외환상품운용부 차장은 “저가 매수세가 포진해 있는 1280원대를 사이에 두고 공방이 벌어질 것으로 보인다”고 말했다.
정남기 선임기자 jnamki@hani.co.kr