Banking & Finance
Monday, 29 December 2008 20:03
WASHINGTON—World leaders have vowed to help prevent future financial meltdowns by creating international accounting standards so all companies would play by the same rules, but the effort has instead been mired in loopholes and political pressures.
In October, largely hidden from public view, the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) changed the rules so European banks could make their balance sheets look better. The action let the banks rewrite history, picking and choosing among their problem investments to essentially claim that some had been on a different set of books before the financial crisis started.
The results were dramatic. Deutsche Bank shifted $32 billion of troubled assets, turning a $970-million quarterly pretax loss into a $120-million profit. And the securities markets were fooled, bidding Deutsche Bank’s shares up nearly 19 percent on October 30, the day it made the startling announcement that it had turned an unexpected profit.
The change has had dramatic consequences within the cloistered world of accounting, shattering the credibility of the IASB—the very body whose rules have been adopted by 113 countries and is supposed to become the global standard-setter, including for the United States, within a few years.
David Tweedie, chairman of the IASB, acknowledged that the body needs more protection from political manipulation before it can claim that it has become the global gold standard.
Tweedie said he nearly resigned over the rule change demanded by European politicians. “I was so frustrated by the whole thing,” he said. “All the time when we are trying to build a global accounting system, and we are pretty close to it, and then suddenly out of left field this thing appears. It’s just absolutely exasperating.”
US standards have been set by the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) since 1973. “Right now, there is no credibility,” said Robert Denham, chairman of the Financial Accounting Foundation, which oversees the FASB. “If we are going to have global accounting standards, my view is that is not going to work if the IASB is going to be jerked around by the European Commission [EC]. That is the very real risk that is posed by the EC coercion and the IASB’s response.”
The episode exposes how small, incremental changes in arcane accounting rules can affect billions of dollars in market value and corporate profitability. In turn, the money at risk raises the political stakes, as desperate companies begin to lobby political leaders to insist on changes that normally would come about only after a careful discussion and evaluation by experts.
For years, there has been a disconnect between US and international accounting rules. With the history of corporate litigation in the United States, US standards tend to be exact and explicit, making it easier for companies to defend themselves in court.
International rules rely on broad principles, giving companies greater leeway to make their own judgments. An extensive review of international accounting standards published last month by Moody’s Investors Service found significant differences between two French companies on one key issue—even though they used the same accounting firm.
Nevertheless, more than 110 countries have already adopted international rules since the IASB was established in 2001, with Japan, South Korea, India and Canada soon to make the switch.
Tweedie expects that 150 countries will have adopted IASB rules within the next three years. The Securities and Exchange Commission on November 14 adopted a plan to have all US companies prepare their statements using international standards for fiscal years ending after December 15, 2016. More than 100 of the largest companies would be permitted to adopt the rules as soon as next year.
But the financial crisis demonstrated how vulnerable the fledgling system is to political pressure.
On October 8, the leaders of France, Germany, Italy, Britain and the European Commission met in Paris to discuss the worldwide economic crisis. They issued a statement saying they were working together “within the European Union and with our international partners” to ensure the safety and stability of the worldwide banking system. But buried within the statement was a sentence warning that European banks should not face a competitive disadvantage with US banks “in terms of accounting rules and their interpretation.” The leaders added ominously: “This issue must be resolved by the end of the month.”
At issue is an accounting standard known as fair value, or mark to market, in which companies disclose how much an asset could fetch on the open market. With the values of assets plummeting, banks were suddenly stuck with paper losses on assets they could no longer sell. With some critics saying the provision was forcing banks to take large write-downs, the SEC and FASB issued guidance in late September that companies could use their own internal models for assigning a value to assets—in essence, a nod to the principles-based international rules.
But European officials smelled a rat. Under rare circumstances, US companies are permitted to reclassify assets they were actively seeking to trade into long-term “loans,” using an accounting rule that was considered weaker than the international equivalent. The international rules did not permit such transfers, and European officials feared that the new guidance was handing the Americans a competitive advantage.
Shortly after the European leaders’ statement, Commissioner Charlie McCreevy of the European Commission, who was in charge of the European Union (EU) internal market, signaled he would introduce legal changes, overriding the international rules. McCreevy decided to exploit a loophole in the system—that all accounting rules must be adopted as legislation by the EU. So McCreevy was going to force the changes on the IASB by threatening to remove—or carve out—the existing regulation, leaving nothing in its place.
“We made it clear what the IASB should accept,” said Oliver Drewes, a spokesman for McCreevy. “There is always the right, and threat and the pressure, that one could go for a carve-out for European companies.”
Tweedie said the rulemaking body had only four days to act before McCreevy pushed through a change in the law, even though accounting changes of this magnitude would normally take months to achieve.
Unlike the US board, the international board has no regulator like the Securities and Exchange Commission to help shield it from political pressure. So the IASB was at the mercy of the European Commission.
“There had been pressure on him, I suspect, from some of the European leaders,” Tweedie said, referring to McCreevy. “It was quite clear it was going to be pushed through and that would have been a disaster. We were faced with this hole being blown in the European accounting, and we just wanted to step in and control it.”
But the IASB bowed to demands to let the firms backdate the accounting shift to the beginning of July—something not permitted under US rules.
In a recent report, Moody’s wrote that the backdating provision could distort a bank’s earnings and capital position, since “it allows managements to ‘cherry-pick’ selected assets” and “distort their economic reality,” making it more—not less—difficult to compare global bank performance.
“The measure does not make much sense in the first place,” said J.F. Tremblay, a Moody’s vice president. “But the fact that a board can be influenced like that is not good news.” The Washington Post
10-K/A: NATURES SUNSHINE PRODUCTS INC
Last update: 11:50 a.m. EST Dec. 31, 2008
(EDGAR Online via COMTEX) -- Item 7. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations
The following discussion highlights the principal factors that have affected our financial condition, results of operations, liquidity and capital resources for the periods described. This discussion should be read in conjunction with our Consolidated Financial Statements and the related notes in Item 8 of this Form 10-K. This discussion contains forward-looking statements. Please see "Cautionary Statements Regarding Forward-Looking Statements" for the risks, uncertainties and assumptions associated with these forward-looking statements.
OVERVIEW
Our Business, Industry and Target Market
Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc. and its subsidiaries are primarily engaged in the manufacturing and marketing of herbal products, vitamin and mineral supplements, personal care, and miscellaneous products. Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc. is a Utah corporation with its principal place of business in Provo, Utah. We sell our products to a sales force of independent Distributors and Managers who use the products themselves or resell them to other Distributors or consumers. The formulation, manufacturing, packaging, labeling, advertising, distribution and sale of each of our major product groups are subject to regulation by one or more governmental agencies.
We market our products in the United States, Mexico, Central America, Canada, Venezuela, the Dominican Republic, Japan, Ecuador, the United Kingdom, Columbia, Peru, Israel, Russia, Ukraine, Latvia, Lithuania, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Belarus, China, Poland, and Brazil. We also export our products to several other countries, including Argentina, Australia, Chile, New Zealand, and Norway.
We also sell our products through a separate division and operating business segment, Synergy Worldwide, which was acquired in 2000. Synergy Worldwide offers products with formulations different from those of the Nature's Sunshine Products offerings. In addition, Synergy Worldwide's marketing and Distributor compensation plans are sufficiently different from those of Nature's Sunshine Products. Synergy Worldwide sells products in Japan, the United States, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan, Malaysia, Hong Kong, the Philippines, Indonesia, the United Kingdom, Germany, Austria, the Netherlands, and Australia.
In 2007, we experienced healthy net sales revenue growth overseas in our Nature's Sunshine Products International business segment of approximately 15%, while our domestic business segment sales remained flat and our Synergy Worldwide business segment experienced a decline in net sales revenue of approximately 18% due primarily to the loss of several key distributor networks. Over the same period, our cost of goods sold remained constant as a percentage of net sales revenue, but our selling, general and administrative expenses increased somewhat primarily as a result of costs associated with increases in audit fees, the implementation of new internal control procedures, and increase in our reserve for foreign tax contingencies, resulting in a decrease in operating net income for 2007. On our consolidated balance sheet, we maintained a fairly consistent profile from 2006 to 2007, with the exception of a liability related to unrecognized tax positions of $25.9 million in accordance with FASB Financial Interpretation ("FIN") 48, "Accounting for Uncertainly in Income Taxes," and a corresponding decrease in accrued liabilities of $15.8 million and an increase in other assets of $10.1 million.
Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates
Our consolidated financial statements have been prepared in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America ("GAAP") and form the basis for the following discussion and analysis on critical accounting policies and
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estimates. The preparation of these financial statements requires us to make estimates and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets, liabilities, revenues and expenses, and related disclosure of contingent assets and liabilities. On a regular basis we evaluate our estimates and assumptions. We base our estimates on historical experience and on various other assumptions that are believed to be reasonable under the circumstances, the results of which form the basis for making judgments about the carrying values of assets and liabilities that are not readily apparent from other sources. Actual results could differ from these estimates and those differences could have a material effect on our financial position and results of operations. Management has discussed the development, selection and disclosure of these estimates with the Board of Directors and its Audit Committee.
A summary of our significant accounting policies is provided in Note 1 of the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in Item 8 of this Report. We believe the critical accounting policies and estimates described below reflect our more significant estimates and assumptions used in the preparation of our consolidated financial statements. The impact and any associated risks on our business that are related to these policies are also discussed throughout this "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations" where such policies affect reported and expected financial results.
Revenue Recognition
Net sales revenue and related volume incentive expenses are recorded when persuasive evidence of an arrangement exists, collectability is reasonably assured, the amount is fixed and determinable, and title and risk of loss have passed, generally when the merchandise has been delivered. Amounts received for undelivered merchandise are recorded as deferred revenue. Sales revenue is recorded net of the rebate portion of volume incentives, and a reserve for product returns, which reduces revenue, is accrued based on historical experience. From time to time, the Company's United States operation extends short-term credit associated with product promotions. In addition for certain of the Company's international operations, the Company offers credit terms consistent with industry standards within the country of operation. Payments to Distributors and Managers for sales incentives or rebates are recorded as a reduction of revenue. Membership fees are recorded as revenue over the life of the membership, primarily one year. Prepaid event registration fees are deferred and recognized as revenues when the related event is held.
Inventories
Inventories are stated at the lower-of-cost-or-market, using the first-in, first-out method. The components of inventory cost include raw materials, labor, and overhead. To estimate any necessary lower-of-cost-or-market adjustments, various assumptions are made in regard to excess or slow-moving inventories, non-conforming inventories, expiration dates, current and future product demand, production planning, and market conditions.
Self-insurance Liabilities
As a manufacturer and distributor of products that are ingested, we face an inherent risk of exposure to product liability claims in the event that, among other things, the use of our products results in injury to consumers due to tampering by unauthorized third parties or product contamination. We have historically had a very limited number of product claims or reports from individuals who have asserted that they have suffered adverse consequences as a result of using our products. These matters have historically been settled to our satisfaction and have not resulted in material payments. We have established a wholly owned captive insurance company to provide us with product liability insurance coverage and have accrued an amount that we believe is sufficient to cover probable and reasonable estimable liabilities related to product liability claims based upon our history. However, there can be no assurance that these estimates will prove to be sufficient nor can there be any assurance that the ultimate outcome of any litigation for product liability will not have a material negative impact on our business prospects, financial position, results of operations, or liquidity.
We self-insure for certain employee medical benefits. The recorded liabilities for self-insured risks are calculated using actuarial methods and are not discounted. The liabilities include amounts for actual claims and claims incurred but not reported. Actual experience, including claim frequency and severity as well as health care inflation, could result in actual liabilities being more or less than the amounts currently recorded.
Incentive Trip Accrual
We accrue for expenses for incentive trips associated with our direct sales marketing program, which rewards independent Distributors and Managers with paid attendance at our conventions and meetings. Expenses associated with incentive trips are accrued over qualification periods as they are earned. We specifically analyze incentive trip accruals based on historical and current sales trends as well as contractual obligations when evaluating the adequacy of the incentive trip accrual. Actual results could result in liabilities being more or less than the amounts recorded. We have accrued convention and meeting costs of approximately $5.5 million
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and $3.8 million at December 31, 2007 and 2006, respectively.
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Impairment of Long-Lived Assets
The Company reviews its long-lived assets, such as property, plant and equipment and intangible assets for impairment when events or changes in circumstances indicate that the carrying value of an asset may not be recoverable. The Company uses an estimate of future undiscounted net cash flows of the related assets or groups of assets over their remaining lives in measuring whether the assets are recoverable. An impairment loss is calculated by determining the difference between the carrying values and the fair values of these assets. At December 31, 2007 and 2006, the Company did not consider any of its long-lived assets to be impaired.
Contingencies
We are involved in certain legal proceedings. When a loss is considered probable in connection with litigation or income tax and non-income tax contingencies and when a loss can be reasonably estimated with a range, we record our best estimate within the range related to the contingency. If there is no best estimate, we record the minimum of the range. As additional information becomes available, we assess the potential liability related to the contingency and revise the estimates. Revision in estimates of the potential liabilities could materially impact our results of operations in the period of adjustment.
Income Taxes
Our income tax expense, deferred tax assets and liabilities and contingent reserves reflect management's best assessment of estimated future taxes to be paid. We are subject to income taxes in both the U.S. and numerous foreign jurisdictions. Significant judgments and estimates are required in determining the consolidated income tax expense.
Deferred income taxes arise from temporary differences between the tax and financial statement recognition of revenue and expense. In evaluating our ability to recover our deferred tax assets we consider all available positive and negative evidence, including scheduled reversals of deferred tax liabilities, projected future taxable income, tax planning strategies and recent financial operations. In projecting future taxable income, we develop assumptions including the amount of future state, federal and foreign pretax operating income, the reversal of temporary differences, and the implementation of feasible and prudent tax planning strategies. These assumptions require significant judgment about the forecasts of future taxable income and are consistent with the plans and estimates we are using to manage the underlying businesses.
As of December 31, 2007, we have foreign income tax net operating loss carryforwards of $7.7 million that will expire at various dates from 2008 through 2012. The Company has approximately $3.3 million of foreign tax credits, which begin to expire at various times starting in 2012.
We believe that it is more likely than not that the benefit from certain deferred tax assets, including foreign net operating loss carryforwards and foreign tax credits, will not be realized. In recognition of this risk, we have provided a valuation allowance of $11.3 million for certain deferred tax assets, including foreign net operating loss carryforwards and foreign tax credits. If our assumptions change and we determine we will be able to realize these deferred tax assets, the tax benefits relating to any reversal of the valuation allowance on deferred tax assets at December 31, 2007 will be accounted for as a reduction of income tax expense.
Changes in tax laws and rates could also affect recorded deferred tax assets and liabilities in the future. Management is not aware of any such changes that would have a material effect on the Company's results of operations, cash flows or financial position.
The calculation of our tax liabilities involves dealing with uncertainties in the application of complex tax laws and regulations in a multitude of jurisdictions across our global operations.
In July 2006, the FASB issued Financial Interpretation ("FIN") 48, "Accounting for Uncertainty in Income Taxes," which clarifies the accounting for uncertainty in income taxes recognized in the financial statements in accordance with SFAS 109, "Accounting for Income Taxes." FIN 48 provides that a tax benefit from an uncertain tax position may be recognized when it is more likely than not that the position will be sustained upon examination, including resolutions of any related appeals or litigation processes, based on the technical merits.
Income tax positions must meet a more-likely-than-not recognition threshold at the effective date to be recognized upon the adoption of FIN 48 and in subsequent periods. This interpretation also provides guidance on measurement, derecognition, classification, interest and penalties, accounting in interim periods, disclosure and transition. We adopted FIN 48 effective January 1, 2007. The adoption of FIN 48 did not have a material effect on our consolidated financial statements.
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RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
The following table summarizes our consolidated operating results as a percentage of net sales revenue for the periods indicated:
Year Ended December 31,
2007 2006 2005
Net sales revenue 100.0 % 100.0 % 100.0 %
Costs and Expenses:
Cost of goods sold 19.4 19.0 19.2
Volume incentives 39.2 40.3 41.0
Selling, general and administrative 40.6 38.5 36.5
99.2 97.8 96.7
Operating Income 0.8 2.2 3.3
Other Income (Expense):
Interest and other income, net 0.4 0.4 0.2
Interest expense - (0.2 ) (0.2 )
Foreign exchange (losses) gains, net - - (0.1 )
0.4 0.2 (0.1 )
Income Before Provision for Income Taxes 1.2 2.4 3.2
Provision for Income Taxes 3.5 3.4 2.2
Net (Loss) Income (2.3 )% (1.0 )% 1.0 %
Year Ended December 31, 2007 as Compared to the Year Ended December 31, 2006
With this Annual Report, we have presented our financial statements for our fiscal years 2007 and 2006, incorporating to the extent appropriate all information available to us as of the date hereof. We have not previously filed our financial statements for fiscal year 2007.
Net Sales Revenue
Consolidated net sales revenue for the year ended December 31, 2007, was $366.6 million compared to $362.2 million in 2006, an increase of approximately 1.2 percent. During 2007, the increase in net sales revenue is primarily due to continued growth in the Company's international business segment.
We distribute our products to consumers through an independent sales force comprised of Managers and Distributors. Active Managers totaled approximately 24,100 and 24,300 at December 31, 2007 and 2006, respectively. Active Distributors totaled approximately 698,700 and 668,600 at December 31, 2007 and 2006, respectively. We anticipate the number of active Distributors to increase as we expand our existing operations, enter new international markets, and as current Distributors grow their businesses.
Net sales revenue related to the NSP United States business segment operations were $148.3 million and $148.4 million for the years ended December 31, 2007 and 2006, respectively.
NSP International net sales revenue increased to $149.8 million in 2007 compared to $130.6 million in 2006, an increase of approximately 14.7 percent. The increase in international net sales revenue in 2007 compared to 2006 is primarily the result of continued growth in our operations in Russia, Ukraine, Venezuela, and Japan. Price increases are planned in various international markets to compensate for foreign currency devaluations and increases in the cost of finished products. Management believes the price increases will be acceptable to its sales force and will result in increased net sales revenue.
Synergy Worldwide net sales revenue decreased to $68.6 million in 2007 compared to $83.2 million in 2006, a decrease of approximately 17.6 percent. The decrease in Synergy Worldwide net sales is primarily due to the loss of key distributor networks as a result of increased competition in the United States and Japanese markets with growth remaining flat in the other markets in which
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Synergy Worldwide operates. Further information related to the NSP United States, NSP International and Synergy Worldwide business segments is set forth in Note 12 of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in Item 8 of this Report.
Cost of Goods Sold
Cost of goods sold as a percent of net sales revenue increased slightly in 2007 compared to 2006 primarily as a result of increased provisions for obsolete inventory.
Volume Incentives
Volume incentives are a significant part of our direct sales marketing program and represent commission payments made to our independent Distributors and Managers. These payments are designed to provide incentives for reaching higher sales levels and for recruiting additional Distributors. Volume incentives as a percent of net sales revenue decreased slightly during 2007 as compared to 2006, primarily as a result of the decreased sales revenue in our Synergy Worldwide business segment where volume incentives are slightly higher than in the United States and our other international operations, and as a result of sales in new markets where lower levels of volume incentives were paid.
Selling, General and Administrative
Selling, general and administrative expenses increased $9.1 million in 2007 compared to 2006, from $139.6 million to $148.7 million. Approximately $3.4 million is the result of expenses related to the continued growth of the Company's international segments, as well as $1.1 of expenses related to new Synergy Worldwide markets. Professional fees increased $3.0 million as a result of continued work on becoming current in our SEC filings. In addition, bonuses to participants in the Company's discretionary bonus plan increased approximately $1.3 million in 2007 compared to 2006. Selling, general and administrative expenses as a percent of net sales revenue increased to 40.6 percent in 2007 compared to 38.5 percent in 2006. Selling, general and administrative expenses includes general marketing and sales expenses, but not commissions, which are included under Volume Incentives, and also includes research and development expenses and general administrative expenses. The amount, excluding capital expenditures, spent on research and development activities remained constant at $1.9 million for 2007 and 2006.
Income Taxes
The effective income tax rate was 285 percent for 2007, compared to 141 percent for 2006. The effective rate for 2007 differed from the federal statutory rate of 35 percent primarily related to (i) additional liabilities associated with uncertain tax positions which increased the effective rate by 104 percent,
The effective rate for 2006 differed from the federal statutory rate of 35 percent primarily related to additional non-income tax contingencies which increased the effective rate by approximately 54 percent, a change in deferred tax asset valuation allowances which increased the effective rate by approximately 29 percent, a taxable gain on the sale of intercompany assets eliminated for book purposes which increased the effective rate by approximately 13 percent, a foreign exchange tax gain on an intercompany payable which increased the effective rate by 10 percent, and foreign and state tax rate differentials, as well as permanent nondeductible or deductible items account for the remaining increase.
Year Ended December 31, 2006 as Compared to the Year Ended December 31, 2005
With this Annual Report, we have presented our financial statements for our fiscal years 2006 and 2005, incorporating to the extent appropriate all information available to us as of the date hereof.
Net Sales Revenue
Consolidated net sales revenue for the year ended December 31, 2006, was $362.2 million compared to $351.7 million in 2005, an increase of approximately 3.0 percent. During 2006, the increase in net sales revenue is primarily due to continued growth in the Company's international business segment.
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We distribute our products to consumers through an independent sales force comprised of Managers and Distributors. Active Managers totaled approximately 24,300 and 21,300 at December 31, 2006 and 2005, respectively. Active Distributors totaled approximately 668,600 and 588,100 at December 31, 2006 and 2005, respectively. We anticipate the number of active Distributors to increase as we expand our existing operations, enter new international markets, and as current Distributors grow their businesses.
Net sales revenue related to the NSP United States business segment operations increased approximately 0.1 percent in 2006 to $148.4 million compared to $148.3 million in 2005. This slight increase was the result of both our price increases in our United States market of 1.9 percent in 2006 (due to higher material costs) and a slight decrease in sales volumes of 1.8 percent.
NSP International net sales revenue increased to $130.6 million in 2006 compared to $120.0 million in 2005, an increase of approximately 8.8 percent. The increase in international net sales revenue in 2006 compared to 2005 is primarily the result of continued growth in our operations in Russia, Venezuela, Canada, and Mexico. We implement price increases annually to compensate for foreign currency devaluations and increases in the cost of finished products. Management believes the price increases will be acceptable to its sales force and will result in increased net sales revenue.
Synergy Worldwide net sales revenue decreased to $83.2 million in 2006 compared to $83.4 million in 2005, a decrease of approximately 0.2 percent. The slight decrease in Synergy Worldwide net sales is primarily due to increased competition in the United States and Japanese markets, which have been offset by continued growth in the Korean and South Asian markets. Further information related to the NSP United States, NSP International and Synergy Worldwide business segments is set forth in Note 12 of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in Item 8 of this Report.
Cost of Goods Sold
Cost of goods sold as a percent of net sales revenue decreased slightly in 2006 compared to 2005 primarily as a result of (1) decreased importation costs in several of our international operations, and (2) increased efficiency gained from our expanded manufacturing facility.
Volume Incentives
Volume incentives are a significant part of our direct sales marketing program and represent commission payments made to our independent Distributors and Managers. These payments are designed to provide incentives for reaching higher sales levels and for recruiting additional Distributors. Volume incentives as a percent of net sales revenue decreased slightly during 2006 as compared to 2005, primarily as a result of the decreased sales revenue in our Synergy Worldwide business segment where volume incentives are slightly higher than in the United States and our other international operations, and as a result of sales in new markets where lower levels of volume incentives were paid.
Selling, General and Administrative
Selling, general and administrative expenses increased $11.2 million in 2006 compared to 2005, from $128.4 million to $139.6 million, as a result of expenses related to the continued growth of the Company's international segment as well as costs related to the internal investigation previously mentioned of $6.9 million and $5.1 million related to non-income tax contingencies. Selling, general and administrative expenses as a percent of net sales revenue increased to 38.5 percent in 2006 compared to 36.5 percent in 2005. Selling, general and administrative expenses includes general marketing and sales expenses, but not commissions, which are included under Volume Incentives, and also includes research and development expenses and general administrative expenses. The amount, excluding capital expenditures, spent on research and development activities increased slightly, from $1.8 million in 2005 to $1.9 million in 2006.
Income Taxes
The effective income tax rate was 141 percent for 2006, compared to 69 percent for 2005. The effective rate for 2006 differed from the federal statutory rate of 35 percent primarily related to (i) additional tax contingencies, which increased the effective rate by approximately 54 percent, (ii) a change in deferred tax asset valuation allowances which increased the effective rate by approximately 29 percent, (iii) a taxable gain on the sale of intercompany assets eliminated for book purposes which increased the effective rate by approximately 13 percent, (iv) a foreign exchange tax gain on an intercompany payable which increased the effective rate by 10 percent, and (v) foreign and state tax rate differentials, as well as permanent nondeductible or deductible items accounting for the remaining increase.
. . .
Dec 31, 2008
보도자료http://www.mke.go.kr‘08년 12월 1일(월) 11:00부터 보도하여 주시기 바랍니다.자료문의 : 수출입과장 강명수, 사무관 권현철, 주무관 남경탁 (2110-5333)
2008년 11월 輸出入 동향
- ‘08. 12. 1(월) 배포, 총 23쪽 -
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ㅇ 본 동향 자료는 관세청 통관자료 및 무역통계(KITA)를 기초로 2008년 11월 수출입 실적을 분석한 것임
ㅇ 전체 수출입 실적은 11월 30일까지의 통관실적(잠정치)을 기준으로 작성된 것이며,
ㅇ 품목별․지역별 수출입 실적은 11월 20일까지의 통관실적(잠정치)을 기준으로 작성됨
ㅇ 다만, 주요 품목별 수출실적(MTI 기준) 추이는 지식경제부 품목담당과 검토를 토대로 월간 수출액을 추정하여 작성
2008년 11월 수출입 동향
유가․원자재가 하락 영향으로 2개월 연속 무역수지 흑자 기록
- 세계경기침체 및 소비수요 급감으로 수출, 수입 모두 두자릿수의 감소세 -
- 13대 수출주력품목 중 선박을 제외하고, 모든 품목이 감소세 기록 -
□ 11월 輸出은 전년동월대비 △18.3% 감소한 292.6억달러, 輸入은 △14.6% 감소한 289.6억달러로 貿易收支는 3.0억달러 흑자 기록
< 11월 수출입실적(잠정, 통관기준, 백만달러, %) >
구 분2008년2007년1～10월11월P1～11월P11월1～11월수 출실적(증가율)366,346(21.0)29,262(△18.3)395,608(16.9)35,808(17.0)338,459(14.1)수 입실적(증가율)379,985(31.5)28,965(△14.6)408,950(26.6)33,926(26.8)322,950(14.6)무역수지실적△13,639297△13,3431,88215,509
ㅇ 무역수지가 2개월 연속 흑자를 지속한 것은 유가․원자재가 하락 및 국내 수입수요 감소에 기인
- 전세계적인 경제침체 및 소비수요 감소로 선박(34.7%↑)을 제외하고, 일반기계(△24.4%↓)․자동차부품(△30.8%↓)․석유화학(△36.6%↓) 등 모든 품목들이 수출감소세 기록
- 원유는 도입단가 하락(△15.4%↓)의 영향으로 15개월(‘07.8, △11.4%↓)만에 수입액이 두 자릿수의 감소세 기록
ㅇ 글로벌 금융위기가 선진국 경기침체와 개도국의 성장둔화로 확산되어, 중동을 제외하고 대부분 지역의 수입수요가 급감하는 추세
- 시장위축 및 재고 감축을 이유로 바이어들이 기존수출주문의 선적지연, 축소 또는 취소를 요청하는 사례도 발생하고 있어 향후 수출경기가 매우 어려워질 전망
* 세계경제침체로 일본․대만 등 경쟁국들의 수출도 마이너스로 전환 추세 : 10월 수출증가율 (일본)△7.7%, (대만)△8.3%, (싱가폴)△5.9%
□ 輸出은 선박류를 제외한 주력품목의 수출부진과 중동을 제외한 대부분 지역의 수입수요 감소로 △18.3%의 두 자릿수 감소세 기록
ㅇ 주력품목별로는 제품단가 하락(석유제품․석유화학․철강제품․반도체 등), 소비 감소(무선통신기기․가전․자동차 등) 및 설비투자 감소(일반기계 등) 등으로 대부분 수출감소세 기록
* 13대 품목별 수출증가율(%) : (선박)35, (철강)△2, (섬유류)△18, (석유제품)△19, (자동차)△13, (액정디바이스)△19, (무선통신기기)△26, (일반기계)△24, (자동차부품)△31, (석유화학)△37, (반도체)△44, (가전)△51, (컴퓨터)△55
- 다만, 선박은 과거수주물량에 힘입어 두 자릿수(34.7%)로 수출증가
ㅇ 11.1～20일간 지역별로는 對선진국 수출 감소(△8.3%)와 더불어 對개도국 수출도 큰 폭의 감소세(△17.5%)로 전환
- 중동(30.6%)을 제외하고, 중남미(△5.8%)․미국(△6.2%)․대양주(△6.2%) 등은 한 자릿수 감소세로,
- EU(△12.5%)․일본(△13.5%)․ASEAN(△16.2%)․중국(△27.8%) 등은 두 자릿수 감소세로 전환되는 등 대부분 지역의 수출이 큰 폭으로 감소
□ 輸入은 원유 등 원자재의 수입둔화 및 자본재․소비재의 큰 폭의 수입감소 영향으로 △14.6%의 감소세 기록
ㅇ 원자재는 (11.1～20일간)7.7% 증가하였지만, 원유(△21%↓)․석유제품(△38%↓)은 도입단가 하락 및 수요 감소로 수입액이 크게 감소
* 원자재 수입증가율 : (’07.11.1～20) 32.8% → (’08.11.1～20) 7.7%
- 다만, 5대 수입품목중 석탄․가스․철강제품 등의 도입단가는 아직 높은 수준 유지
* (석탄)106%, (가스)50%, (철강)53%, (원유)△15%, (석유제품)△30%
ㅇ 자본재 및 소비재는 설비투자 부진과 소비 감소 등의 영향으로 수입증가율이 모두 두 자릿수의 큰 폭의 감소세
* 자본재 수입증가율 : (’07.11.1～20) 23.6% → (’08.11.1～20) △23.6%
* 소비재 수입증가율 : (’07.11.1～20) 15.6% → (’08.10.1～20) △17.7%
□ 이에 따라, 월간 貿易收支는 3.0억달러 흑자를 기록하며, 지난 10월에 이어 2개월 연속 흑자 시현
◈ 지식경제부는 세계경제의 급격한 위축으로 급증하고 있는 기업들의 수출애로를 적극 해소하기 위해
ㅇ 실물경제종합지원단(단장: 제1차관), 수출입상황실(실장: 무역투자실장) 등을 통한 현장방문 및 실시간 기업 무역애로 해소, 해외마케팅 지원 확대, 수출보험지원 강화 등 수출촉진대책을 적극 추진하겠음
1. 수출 동향 (잠정)
가. 輸出 추이
□ 11월 輸出은 전년 동월대비 △18.3% 감소한 292.6억달러를 기록하며, 14개월 만에 수출감소세 기록
ㅇ 조업일수를 고려한 日평균 수출액도 전년 동월대비 △12.8% 감소한 13.0억달러로 15개월만(‘07.8, 12.9억달러/일)에 최저치 기록
□ 품목별 수출은 선박류를 제외한 석유제품․일반기계․무선통신기기․철강제품․석유화학․자동차부품 등 대부분의 주력품목 수출이 감소세로 전환
□ 지역별 수출은 11.1～20일(△14.4%)간 對중동(30.6%)을 제외한 대부분의 지역에서 큰 폭으로 둔화 추세
ㅇ 對美(△6.2%), 對日(△13.5%), 對EU(△12.5%) 등 對선진국 수출(△8.3%)은 둔화세가 커지면서 선진국 경기침체 영향을 반영
ㅇ 또한, 그동안 수출호조지역이던 對중남미(△5.8%), 對대양주(△6.2%), 對ASEAN(△16.2%), 對中(△27.8%) 등 對개도국 수출도 큰 폭으로 감소세(△17.5%)로 전환
< 수출실적 추이(억달러, %) >
‘07.1112‘08.1234567891011수출액358.1 330.3 322.8 311.8 359.9 378.5 393.9 372.6 409.6 366.3 374.4 373.7 292.6증감율17.0 14.8 14.9 18.9 18.4 26.4 26.9 16.4 35.6 18.2 27.7 8.5 △18.3日평균14.9 15.4 13.4 15.6 15.6 16.5 17.5 16.9 16.4 16.3 16.6 15.6 13.0
< 최근 1년간 월별 수출 추이 >
나. 13大 품목별 輸出 동향 (11.1～20일 실적을 바탕으로 11월중 실적 추정)
◈ 두 자릿수 이상 증가한 품목(1) : 선박류(34.7%)
◈ 한 자릿수 감소한 품목(1) : 철강제품(△2.1%)
◈ 두 자릿수 감소한 품목(11) : 자동차(△13.1%), 섬유류(△18.4%), 석유제품(△19.0%), 액정디바이스(△19.4%), 일반기계(△24.4%), 무선통신기기(△26.2%), 자동차부품(△30.8%), 석유화학(△36.6%), 반도체(△44.0%), 가전(△50.6%), 컴퓨터(△54.9%)
□ 선박류는 견조한 두 자릿수의 수출 호조세 유지
(단위 : 억달러, %)
품목명수출실적
(증가율)수출 호조세 지속 원인’07.11’08.11선박류28.3
(26.2)38.2
(34.7)ㅇ안정된 수주물량(4년치 확보) 및 안정된 노사 관계로 수출호조세 지속
- 최근 발주량 감소로 수주량은 감소하나, 수주점유율은 전년보다 상승
* 한국 수주점유율(CGT기준) : (‘07)37%→(’08.1～9)41.1%
□ 철강제품은 한 자릿수의 수출감소세
(단위 : 억달러, %)
품목수출실적
(증가율)수출 한 자릿수 감소 원인’07.11’08.11철강
제품20.5
(10.2)20.1
(△2.1)ㅇ세계경기둔화로 인한 수요감소, 생산량 증가, 중국 수출확대 등으로 가격 약세가 지속
* 철강가격지수(CRU) : ('08.1)183→(4)237→(7)291→(8)293→(9)269→(10)240→(11)195
ㅇ중국․일본 등에 대한 수출 부진으로 수출감소세 전환
* 수출증가율(11.1-20, %) : (철강제품)4.9, (냉연강판)△11.7
□ 섬유류, 석유제품, 자동차, 액정디바이스, 무선통신기기, 일반기계, 자동차부품, 석유화학, 반도체, 가전 및 컴퓨터는 두 자릿수의 큰 폭의 감소세
(단위 : 억달러, %)
품목수출실적
(증가율)수출 두 자릿수 감소 원인’07.11’08.11자동차36.8
(3.9)32.0
(△13.1)ㅇ경기침체 우려로 인한 미 자동차산업의 사상 최대 경영위기로 4/4분기 수출 어려움이 가중
* ‘08.10월 미국 자동차 판매는 25년만에 최악의 실적 기록(전년동월 대비 △31.4%, 2차대전 이후 최저치)
- 글로벌 산업구조개편으로 국내 자동차업계도 수출 감소로 인한 감산 및 내부 구조조정 우려 상존
ㅇ미국․서유럽 등 주요 시장 침체로 수출이 급감섬유류11.9
(7.4)9.7
(△18.4)ㅇ섬유소비 감소와 이에 따른 발주 지연 및 취소 등의 영향으로 수출여건 악화
- 미, 유럽 시장을 중심으로 소비 위축 본격화
ㅇ섬유사, 직물, 제품 등 모두 감소세
* 품목별 수출증가율(11.1-20, %) : (섬유직물)△8.5, (섬유제품)△16.6, (섬유사)△21.9석유
제품27.5
(66.8)22.3
(△19.0)ㅇ국제 석유제품 가격이 유가하락과 수요감소 둔화 우려 등으로 하락세 지속
- 또한, 중국 등의 제품수요가 약세를 나타내며 수출여건이 계속 악화되고 있는 추세
ㅇ수출금액은 전년동월 대비 크게 감소하나, 수출물량은 약 32백만배럴로 전년동월 대비 약 9.4% 증가
* 경유 수출단가($/bbl) : ('07.11)99→('08.1)108→(3)128→(5)162→(7)167→(9)120→(10)87→(11.2주)75
(단위 : 억달러, %)
품목수출실적
(증가율)수출 두 자릿수 감소 원인’07.11’08.11액정
디바이스16.8
(40.2)13.6
(△19.4)ㅇ세계경기침체에 따른 구매심리 저하에 따른 소비재용 전자제품의 수요 감소 등으로 수출감소세 지속
ㅇ특히, 디스플레이 패널(노트북, 모니터, TV 등) 가격 하락세가 지속되어 패널 업체의 영업이익 감소에 영향
* TFT LCD(TV용,81cm) : ('07.11)$327/개→('08.1)328→(3)325→(5)314→(7)285→(9)253→(11)222일반
기계30.1
(44.6)22.8
(△24.4)ㅇ미국․유럽 등 선진시장의 경제침체, 중국․중남미 등 개도국의 제조업 부진 영향으로 수출이 큰 폭으로 감소
* 지역별 수출증가율(11.1-20, %) : (미국)△13.5,
(EU)△37.4, (중국)△12.4, (중남미)△15.9
ㅇ다만, 중동․아세안 지역으로는 수출증가세 유지
* 지역별 수출증가율(11.1-20, %) : (중동)42.8, (ASEAN)11.9무선통신
기기34.5
(30.5)25.4
(△26.2)ㅇ유럽시장 소비 침체로 ‘07.9월(△1.3%) 이후 처음으로 수출감소세를 기록
ㅇ미국시장은 교체수요로 전년수준을 유지하나, 유럽 및 신흥시장은 판매가 하락 및 수요감소로 수출감소세
* 지역별 수출증가율(11.1-20, %) : (미국)3.1,
(EU)△30.2, (개도국)△20.2자동차
부품12.3
(35.0)8.5
(△30.8)ㅇ지난 10월 이후 해외 자동차 판매 부진에 따른 재고 누적과 감산 등으로 자동차부품의 수출이 감소세로 전환
ㅇ특히 자동차 조립업체들의 재고 감축 및 조업 중단으로 KD(반제품) 수출이 급감하는 추세
(단위 : 억달러, %)
품목수출실적
(증가율)수출 두 자릿수 감소 원인’07.11’08.11석유
화학25.1
(19.3)15.9
(△36.6)ㅇ세계적 수요부진과 중국 등 신흥국들의 저가물량공세에 따른 공급과잉 등으로 제품가격이 큰 폭의 하락세
* 석유화학제품 가격 추이($/톤) :
․에틸렌 : (7월) 1,635 → (11.7일) 390(△76%↓)
․LDPE : (7월) 1,945 → (11.7일) 960(△51%↓)
․PP : (7월) 2,028 → (11.7일) 655(△68%↓)
ㅇ주요 수요처(중국 등)의 추가 가격하락 기대에 따른 구매 취소 및 보류
- NCC를 비롯, SM, ABS 등 일부 유화제품은 채산성 악화로 가동률이 하향조정되어 수출물량 감소반도체34.7
(△11.9)19.4
(△44.0)ㅇ메모리공급 과잉에 따른 DRAM 및 Nand Flash의 가격하락세로 5개월 연속 수출감소세 지속
* DRAM 가격(1G,$/개) : (’07.1)2.50→(‘08.1)2.03→(5)2.19→(7)1.98→(9)1.65→(11)0.94
* Nand Flash 가격추이($/개, MLC 8G) : (’07.11)4.98→(‘08.1)3.17→(5)3.15→(7)2.33→(9)1.75→(12)1.34가 전11.4
(3.0)5.6
(△50.6)ㅇ블랙프라이데이 특수 실종, 미 서킷시티 파산에 따른 대형유통업체의 재고감축 노력으로 수출 감소세 지속
* 수출증가율(11.1-20, %) : (영상기기)△49.4, (칼라TV)△53.6, (냉장고)△31.8
ㅇ특히 칼라TV부품 수출도 큰 폭으로 감소하는 등 해외 생산기지의 판매 부진도 가속화되는 상황컴퓨터12.6
(11.2)5.7
(△54.9)ㅇ컴퓨터 생산기반의 해외(중국등) 이전 가속화 및 가격경쟁력 약화로 수출감소세 지속
ㅇ모니터, 보조기억장치, 부품 등 수출감소세 지속
* 품목별 수출증가율(11.1-20, %) : (모니터)△69.5, (보조기억장치)△49.0, (컴퓨터부품)△42.6
< 13대 품목별 11월 수출실적 >
(단위 : 백만달러, %)
품목명’07년 전체’08년1～10월11월P1～11월P선박류
(증가율)27,77734,2453,81838,063(25.6)(56.4)(34.7)(53.9)자동차
(증가율)37,28429,4293,19932,628(13.3)(△3.0)(△13.1)(△4.1)무선통신기기
(증가율)30,45831,3582,54333,901(12.7)(26.6)(△26.2)(20.1)석유제품
(증가율)23,96634,1452,22836,373(17.5)(84.1)(△19.0)(70.8)일반기계
(증가율)30,76432,2482,27734,525(28.6)(29.8)(△24.4)(24.0)반도체
(증가율)39,04529,3271,94431,271(4.5)(△9.8)(△44.0)(△13.1)철강제품
(증가율)23,02025,7102,00727,717(18.5)(35.6)(△2.1)(31.9)석유화학
(증가율)28,82428,9381,59130,529(19.6)(21.5)(△36.6)(15.9)액정디바이스
(증가율)16,65516,0571,35717,417(36.4)(19.6)(△19.4)(15.2)섬유류
(증가율)13,44611,44297412,492(1.6)(2.4)(△18.4)(1.0)자동차부품
(증가율)12,43612,32385213,223(21.6)(22.5)(△26.8)(17.1)가 전
(증가율)13,43311,65456412,254(△7.7)(3.5)(△50.6)(△1.2)컴퓨터
(증가율)13,8089,60857010,178(9.8)(△15.3)(△54.9)(△19.3)
다. 지역별 수출 동향(11.1～20일까지 잠정치 기준)
◈ 對中東을 제외한 모든 지역의 수출이 감소세로 전환
< 주요 지역별 수출 증가율 추이(전년 동기대비, %) >
’06‘07‘08.8‘08.9‘08.10’07.11.1～20’08.11.1～20中 國12.2 18.0 19.4 15.1 △2.6 23.1 △27.8 美 國4.5 6.0 1.0 19.4 5.3 0.0 △6.2 日 本10.4 △0.6 4.7 16.9 4.6 12.5 △13.5 E U11.3 13.7 6.1 26.7 5.7 5.7 △12.5 ASEAN16.9 20.8 43.1 20.2 9.4 23.6 △16.2 中 東18.2 36.4 37.5 41.3 29.0 28.0 30.6 중남미36.0 25.4 46.2 48.8 22.8 32.0 △5.8 대양주12.7 17.7 54.6 76.6 18.5 86.9 △6.2
ㅇ 對中 수출은 액정디바이스(8.4%) 등이 증가하였으나 자동차부품(△48.1%), 석유제품(△47.0%), 반도체(△46.4%), 철강제품(△8.0%), 기초산업기계(△4.5%) 등을 중심으로 감소
ㅇ 對美 수출은 액정디바이스(△62.5%), 섬유류(△29.1%), 가정용전자제품(△27.1%), 반도체(△5.0) 등이 감소하였으나 철강제품(51.7%), 자동차(35.3%) 등을 중심으로 증가
ㅇ 對日 수출은 철강제품(26.9%)을 제외한 반도체(△49.3%), 비철금속제품(△42.5%), 석유제품(△38.5%) 등 대부분의 품목이 감소
ㅇ 對EU 수출은 석유화학제품(6.8%), 철강제품(4.5%) 등은 증가하고 반도체(△40.6%), 일반기계(△37.4%), 무선통신기기(△30.2%), 자동차부품(△22.5%) 등의 수출이 감소
< 지역별 수출 비중 추이(%) >
’06‘07‘08.8‘08.9‘08.10’07.11.1～20’08.11.1～20中 國21.3 22.1 23.3 21.6 20.2 24.3 20.5 美 國13.3 12.3 9.7 10.2 11.9 11.0 12.2 日 本8.2 7.1 6.0 6.2 6.6 7.7 7.8 E U15.1 15.1 13.3 13.9 14.3 15.4 15.8 ASEAN9.9 10.4 12.0 10.6 10.7 10.3 10.2 中 東4.4 5.3 5.9 5.9 6.3 4.6 7.1 중남미6.3 6.9 9.2 8.1 8.6 5.4 5.9 대양주2.1 2.1 2.7 3.5 1.9 3.0 3.3
2. 수입 동향 (잠정)
가. 輸入 추이
□ 11월 수입은 전년동월대비 △14.6% 감소한 289.6억달러 기록
ㅇ 조업일수를 고려한 日평균 수입액도 전년 동월대비 △8.9% 감소한 12.9억달러로 15개월만(‘07.8, 12.4억달러/일)에 최저치 기록
□ 원자재는 1～10월간 수입증가세(45.2%)보다 크게 둔화된 7.7%의 증가세 기록
ㅇ 자본재(△23.6%)는 수입 감소세를 기록, 11.1~20일간 반도체제조용 장비(△68.6%), 컴퓨터부품(△47.3%) 등을 중심으로 감소
ㅇ 소비재(△12.8%)는 전년동기(11.1～20일) 대비 생활용품(△17.5), 승용차 (△44.7%), 가정용전자제품(△19.7%) 등을 중심으로 감소세
< 수입실적 추이(억달러, %) > ‘07.1112‘08.1234567891011수입액339.3 339.0 363.1 326.2 371.0 382.6 386.8 378.2 429.9 404.2 396.4 361.6 289.6증감율26.8 23.2 31.7 28.4 26.6 29.3 29.6 32.7 47.1 36.4 45.8 10.4 △14.6日평균14.1 15.8 15.1 16.3 16.1 16.6 17.2 17.2 17.2 18.0 17.6 15.1 12.9
< 최근 1년간 월별 수입 추이 >
나. 용도별 수입 동향 (11.1～20일까지 잠정치 기준)
◈ 유가․원자재가 하락 및 수요감소 등에 의해 원자재 수입이 둔화하고, 자본재와 소비재의 수입은 감소세로 전환
< 용도별 수입 추이 (전년 동기대비, %) >
’06‘07‘08.8‘08.9‘08.10’07.11.1～20’08.11.1～20원자재증가율22.816.457.161.120.632.87.7비 중56.557.065.364.060.957.765.8자본재증가율11.714.37.826.20.123.6△23.6비 중32.732.425.927.330.132.125.5소비재증가율19.917.58.718.8△10.115.6△17.7비 중10.210.48.48.69.010.28.7총수입증가율18.415.336.445.810.427.5△4.8
□ 원자재는 원유․석유제품․가스 등 에너지자원과 철강제품의 수입급증 영향으로 전년동기(11.1～20일) 대비 7.7% 증가
< 주요 에너지자원 월간(11.1～30일) 수입 추이(백만달러, %) >
구 분`06‘07`07.11`08.10'08.11증감율 (%)전년동월비전월비원 유55,86560,3246,4686,4385,116 △20.9△20.5석유제품9,55911,9691,045 1,113648 △38.0△41.8가 스14,70015,9991,6662,0122,51450.924.9합 계80,12488,2929,1799,5638,278△9.8△13.4
ㅇ 원유수입은 도입단가가 전년동월($82.9/bbl)보다 △15.4% 감소($70.1/bbl)하여 도입금액이 51.2억달러(△20.9%↑)로 △13.5억달러 감소
* 전월과 비교시, 원유 도입단가가 △22.9% 감소하여 도입금액은 △13.2억달러 감소
구 분`06`07`07.11`08.10'08.11증감율 (%)전년동월비전월비국제유가(Dubai, $/B)61.668.486.9 67.7 49.9△42.5△26.2도입단가($/B)62.9 69.1 82.9 90.9 70.1 △15.4△22.9도입물량(백만B)888.8873.578.1 70.8 73.0 △6.53.1수입액(백만$)55,86560,3246,4686,4385,116△20.9△20.5
ㅇ 철강판(42.5%), 철강관(5.1%) 등 철강제품(29.1%)은 증가한 반면, 알루미늄괴(△36.1%), 동괴(△22.3%) 등 비철금속제품(△28.6%)의 수입은 감소
ㅇ 유연탄(148.6%), 사료(16.8%), 펄프(0.2%) 등의 수입은 증가한 반면, 의약품(△32.8%), 고철(△19.4%) 등의 수입은 감소
□ 자본재(△23.6%)는 전년동기(11.1～20일) 대비 휴대용컴퓨터(39.0%), 무선통신기기부품(12.3%) 등의 수입이 증가한 반면,
ㅇ 반도체제조용장비(△68.6%), 컴퓨터부품(△47.3%), 금속절삭가공기계(△39.5%), 자동차부품(△23.7%), 액정디바이스(△1.7%) 등의 수입은 감소
< 주요 자본재 품목별 수입 증가율(11.1～20, %) >
감소 품목증가 품목반도체제조용장비(△68.6), 컴퓨터부품(△47.3), 금속절삭가공기계(△39.5), 광학렌즈(△36.3), 프로세스와컨트롤러(△31.8)전자계측기(58.0), 휴대용컴퓨터(39.0), 선박용부품(13.1), 무선통신기기부품(12.3), 전동축및기어(9.5), 자동제어기(0.6)
□ 소비재(△17.7%)는 전년동기(11.1～20일) 대비 신발(△12.4%) 등 생활용품(△17.5)과 승용차(△44.7%), 가정용전자제품(△19.7%)등을 중심으로 감소세
< 주요 소비재 품목별 수입 증감율(11.1～20, %) >
감소 품목증가 품목승용차(△44.7), 코드분할식전화기(△34.4), 대두(△29.5), 타일(△21.9), 코드및자켓(△14.1), 신발(△12.4), 밀(△9.0), 옥수수(△6.2)명태(59.5), 커피(48.7), 쇠고기(29.1), 치즈(23.2), 가죽제가방(13.2), 스피커(8.0), 로얄제리(0.6)
* 주요 농산물 가격($/톤, 한국농촌경제연구원)
[밀] (‘07.11) 300 → (’08.10) 255 → (’08.11) 212 [29.3%↓]
[대두] (‘07.11) 391 → (’08.10) 329 → (’08.11) 326 [16.6%↓]
[옥수수] (‘07.11) 150 → (’08.10) 162 → (’08.11) 148 [1.3%↓]
다. 지역별 수입 동향 (11.1～20일까지 잠정치 기준)
◈ 지역별로는 대양주․中東․중남미 등을 중심으로 수입이 크게 증가하였으나, 미국․일본․EU 등은 수입감소세 지속
< 지역별 수입 증감률 추이(전년동기대비, %) >
‘06’07‘08.8‘08.9‘08.10’07.11.1～20’08.11.1～20日 本7.3 8.3 13.4 27.3 △1.214.8△18.2美 國10.0 10.6 0.9 28.7 △1.124.2△29.3中 國25.6 29.8 37.3 47.2 8.425.8△4.0ASEAN14.1 11.3 36.2 47.2 8.320.6△2.0E U10.1 22.1 15.3 30.1 △6.538.6△26.7中 東31.9 8.0 92.6 73.4 22.144.219.5중남미38.7 16.4 19.5 39.0 37.220.619.1대양주13.4 17.3 43.8 49.9 60.0△3.557.8
ㅇ 對日 수입은 반도체제조용장비(△61.1%), 반도체(△44.0%), 자동차(△39.0%), 정밀화학제품(△5.0%) 등은 대다수 품목이 감소
ㅇ 對美 수입은 철강제품(54.4%), 농산물(15.4%)이 증가하였으나 항공기및부품(△76.7%), 반도체제조용장비(△43.5%) 등은 감소
ㅇ 對中 수입은 농산물(△25.8%), 컴퓨터(△21.0%) 등이 감소하였지만 철강제품(41.6%), 반도체(1.1%) 등 대부분 품목이 증가
ㅇ 對EU 수입은 자동차(△60.8%), 정밀화학제품(△29.9%), 기초산업기계(△21.7%) 등을 중심으로 수입이 감소
ㅇ 對대양주 수입은 철강제품(254.5%), 광물성원료(99.6%), 금속광물(75.4%), 임산물(3.5%) 등 대부분 품목이 증가
< 지역별 수입 비중 추이(%) >
’06‘07‘08.8‘08.9‘08.10’07.11.1～20’08.11.1～20日 本16.8 15.8 12.9 13.7 14.2 14.7 12.6 美 國10.9 10.4 8.2 8.3 9.1 10.6 7.7 中 國15.7 17.7 17.7 18.6 17.8 17.6 17.6 ASEAN9.6 9.3 8.9 9.4 9.4 9.8 10.1 E U9.8 10.3 9.1 8.6 8.6 10.3 7.7 中 東20.2 18.9 25.7 24.4 21.5 19.5 25.3 중남미3.1 3.2 3.0 2.6 4.2 3.0 3.7 대양주4.0 4.1 4.0 4.3 5.6 3.6 5.9
3. 무역수지 동향 (잠정)
◈ 11월 무역수지는 3.0억달러 흑자를 기록
< 월간 무역수지 추이 (억달러) >
구 분‘07.1112'08.1234567891011무역수지18.8 △8.7 △40.3△14.4△11.1△4.17.1△5.6△20.4△37.9△22.012.13.0
□ 무역수지는 수출 감소(△18.3%)에도 불구하고, 수입 감소(△14.6%)의 영향으로 전년동월대비 15.8억달러 감소한 3.0억달러 흑자
< 11월 무역수지 동향 (억달러) >
구 분’01’02’03’04’05’06’07’0811월 수지8.212.024.827.719.838.418.83.011월 원유수입15.017.123.035.542.443.864.751.2월평균 수지7.88.612.524.519.313.412.2- 연간 수지93.4103.4149.9293.8231.8160.8146.4-
□ 국가별로 對EU, 對中 등을 중심으로 무역수지 흑자를 기록하고 있으나, 對중동 수지는 원유수입 증가 등으로 적자 지속
< 주요 국가별 무역수지 추이(억달러) >
‘06’07‘08.8‘08.9‘08.10’07.11.1～20’08.11.1～20美 國95.385.52.25.611.4△1.0 4.8中 國209.0189.613.87.211.010.5 △1.9홍 콩168.8165.115.516.416.010.6 9.0日 本△253.9△298.8△30.2△31.4△26.6△17.1 △13.5E U190.7191.611.817.822.58.6 11.2中 東△480.7△478.2△82.1△74.5△54.0△34.4 △42.1
< 참고 1 > 대표적인 수출주문 지연 및 취소 사례
수출지연 사례
ㅇ (가전) 美 가전업체의 청소기를 OEM방식으로 생산하여 수출하고 있는 D사는 미국 경제침체로 11～12월 오더(약 30만불 규모)가 지연
ㅇ (반도체) A사는 대만 B사가 발주한 3000만불 규모의 장비를 유동성 부족을 사유로 당초 '09년 상반기에서 '09년 4분기로 수출해 줄 것을 요청하여 현재 수출물량(900만불 상당)이 쌓여 있는 상황
ㅇ (자동차) C사는 경기침체로 인한 러시아 등 KD(반제품) 주요 수입국의 재고감소 노력과 수출신용장 개설곤란으로 KD수출이 급감
수출주문 축소 및 취소 사례
ㅇ (철강제품) H업체는 거래업체이던 나이지리아 B사가 최근 철강가격 하락 등을 이유로 H형강의 계약가 대비 20% 단가를 낮추어 줄 것을 요구, 수출금액 20% 감소(당초 약 3백만불, 3천톤 규모)
ㅇ (일반기계) I사는 유럽 발주사의 신용경색문제, 발주사 소속국가 은행의 신용보증 거부 등으로 인해 수주 물량의 10% 정도가 계약취소(월간 금액 100만$～200만$)
ㅇ (일반기계) K사는 11월 들어 경기침체 및 수요위축으로 50만$ 상당의 계약건수가 미주 지역으로부터 취소됨
상품인수 취소 사례 (통관은 되었으나, 현지에서 인수 거부)
ㅇ (석유화학) O사는 파키스탄으로 제품을 선적하여 항구에 도착하였으나, 운송 기간 동안 루피화가 폭락하고, 시장이 급속도로 위축되자 바이어 측은 사소한 서류상의 하자를 들어 인수를 거부
ㅇ (비철금속) S사는 반가공 비철금속 원료를 유럽으로 수출중이나, 최근 세계 경기침체에 따른 원자재價 급락으로 바이어가 선적제품 인수를 거부
< 참고 2 > 월별 수출입 추이 비교
□ 수출증가율(%)
□ 수입증가율(%)
□ 무역수지(억 달러)
< 참고 3 > 연도별․품목별․지역별 수출입실적 통계
연도별·월별 수출입 실적
(통관기준, 백만달러,%)
수 출 (FOB)수 입 (CIF)무역수지증가율증가율2003년193,817 19.3 178,827 17.6 14,991 2004년253,845 31.0 224,463 25.5 29,382 2005년284,419 12.0 261,238 16.4 23,180 2006년325,465 14.4 309,383 18.4 16,082 1/473,88510.672,54219.71,3432/481,47316.976,72020.44,7543/482,71316.380,21621.12,4974/487,39413.879.90513.07,4892007년371,489 14.1 356,846 15.3 14,643 1/484,704 14.6 82,262 13.4 2,442 2/492,984 14.1 87,962 14.7 5,023 3/490,529 9.4 86,059 7.3 4,470 4/4103,272 18.2 100,563 25.9 2,709 128,093 20.8 27,560 19.4 532 226,225 10.3 25,406 8.1 819 330,386 13.2 29,295 12.9 1,090 429,944 17.0 29,597 20.9 348 531,040 11.1 29,857 13.9 1,183 632,000 14.5 28,508 9.5 3,492 730,207 17.2 29,223 14.4 984 830,998 13.6 29,642 9.7 1,356 929,324 -1.1 27,194 -1.6 2,130 1034,434 22.9 32,741 27.8 1,693 1135,808 17.0 33,926 26.8 1,882 1233,030 14.8 33,896 23.2 -866 2008년395,60816.9 408,95026.6 -13,3431/499,448 17.4 106,026 28.9 -6,578 2/4114,502 23.1 114,755 30.5 253 3/4115,026 27.1 123,046 43.0 -8,020 132,276 14.9 36,305 31.7 -4,029 231,179 18.9 32,620 28.4 -1,441 335,992 18.5 37,101 26.6 -1,109 437,845 26.4 38,255 29.3 -409 539,394 26.9 38,684 29.6 710 637,262 16.4 37,816 32.7 -554 740,955 35.6 42,991 47.1 -2,037 836,630 18.2 40,417 36.4 -3,788 937,442 27.7 39,637 45.8 -2,195 1037,370 8.5 36,158 10.4 1,212 1129,262 -18.328,965 -14.6297
주요 품목별 수출실적
(백만달러,%)
2007년2008년11.1 ～ 11.201.1 ～ 11.20금액증가율비중금액증가율금액증가율비중전체 수출371,48914.1 100.0 17,551 -14.4 383,896 18.8 100.0 중화학제품340,07815.2 91.5 15,882 -15.7 352,489 19.3 91.8 ㅇ석유제품23,96617.5 6.5 1,449 -12.6 35,594 76.2 9.3 ㅇ화 공 품39,99917.5 10.8 1,596 -21.4 42,537 21.3 11.1 석유화학28,82419.6 7.8 1,032 -29.9 29,970 18.5 7.8 ㅇ철강제품23,02018.5 6.2 1,183 4.9 26,893 33.9 7.0 ㅇ비철금속8,51311.4 2.3 314 -34.0 7,794 3.0 2.0 ㅇ일반기계30,76428.6 8.3 1,546 -10.5 33,793 27.2 8.8 ․건설광산기계5,28628.8 1.4 152 -37.2 5,537 21.4 1.4 ㅇ정밀기계2,23953.9 0.6 88 -8.7 1,869 -6.7 0.5 ㅇ자 동 차37,28413.2 10.0 1,670 2.0 31,099 -2.7 8.1 승 용 차34,48312.7 9.3 1,516 0.2 27,793 -6.2 7.2 ㅇ자동차부품12,43621.6 3.3 553 -23.8 12,876 19.4 3.4 ㅇ선 박 류27,77725.6 7.5 1,599 26.7 35,844 54.7 9.3 ㅇ전자․전기131,7579.2 35.5 5,773 -27.5 122,247 5.3 31.8 산업용전자48,53910.3 13.1 2,412 -24.0 47,354 10.9 12.3 ․무선통신기기30,45812.7 8.2 1,820 -16.3 33,177 23.1 8.6 ․컴퓨터13,8089.8 3.7 386 -49.6 9,994 -17.5 2.6 ․컴퓨터부품2,827-7.3 0.8 100 -42.6 2,154 -14.8 0.6 가정용전자13,433-7.7 3.6 435 -38.2 12,089 1.0 3.1 ․칼라TV6,090-9.6 1.6 166 -53.6 5,582 4.4 1.5 전자부품62,93412.1 16.9 2,604 -29.5 55,393 -0.2 14.4 ․반도체39,0454.5 10.5 1,257 -41.8 30,584 -11.8 8.0 ․액정디바이스16,65536.4 4.5 895 -18.3 16,951 16.7 4.4 경공업제품25,7792.6 6.9 1,254 -7.8 24,536 8.1 6.4 ㅇ플라스틱4,40912.1 1.2 217 -5.9 4,490 16.1 1.2 ㅇ타 이 어2,69311.1 0.7 100 -16.0 2,566 10.1 0.7 ㅇ가죽․모피8692.5 0.2 45 -0.4 779 0.3 0.2 ㅇ섬 유 류13,4461.6 3.6 623 -13.1 12,065 1.5 3.1 섬 유 사1,45510.1 0.4 54 -21.9 1,226 -3.3 0.3 섬유직물7,9551.7 2.1 401 -8.5 7,267 2.9 1.9 섬유제품2,999-6.4 0.8 133 -16.6 2,642 -0.5 0.7 ㅇ생활용품2,648-1.3 0.7 133 -7.9 2,321 -0.9 0.6 1 차 산 품5,63310.7 1.5 415 34.0 6,871 41.0 1.8
주요 품목별 수입실적
(백만달러,%)
2007년2008년11.1 ～ 11.201.1 ～ 11.20금액증가율비중금액증가율금액증가율비중전체 수입356,846 15.3 100.0 21,521 -4.8 401,505 28.8 100.0 원 자 재203,465 16.4 57.0 14,153 7.7 251,968 42.4 62.8 자 본 재115,671 14.3 32.4 5,483 -23.6 112,554 10.7 28.0 소 비 재37,180 17.5 10.4 1,882 -17.7 36,484 12.2 9.1 ㅇ농림수산물20,516 18.5 5.7 1,209 0.0 21,967 21.9 5.5 - 농 산 물10,785 23.3 3.0 714 7.9 12,935 36.3 3.2 ․양 곡1,183 30.2 0.3 81 -3.8 1,679 58.8 0.4 - 임 산 물3,410 14.0 1.0 180 -5.3 3,293 9.1 0.8 - 수 산 물3,054 10.3 0.9 140 -24.4 2,674 2.2 0.7 ㅇ광 산 물108,874 12.0 30.5 8,735 16.4 146,400 56.6 36.5 - 금속광물12,415 18.6 3.5 716 5.2 13,194 21.5 3.3 - 원 유60,324 8.0 16.9 4,379 -1.3 81,235 56.7 20.2 - 석유제품11,969 25.2 3.4 572 -28.4 16,807 58.6 4.2 - L N G12,653 6.1 3.5 1,842 134.0 17,308 66.3 4.3 ㅇ화 공 품36,853 17.1 10.3 1,942 -14.8 37,997 17.1 9.5 ㅇ섬 유 류8,909 10.8 2.5 432 -20.6 8,103 1.5 2.0 - 섬 유 사1,721 3.2 0.5 82 -17.3 1,569 1.6 0.4 - 섬유직물1,602 4.7 0.4 65 -26.1 1,400 -0.9 0.3 - 섬유제품5,388 15.5 1.5 271 -21.1 4,932 1.7 1.2 ㅇ철강․금속44,062 29.9 12.3 2,712 6.3 53,483 37.5 13.3 - 철강제품27,401 38.8 7.7 1,987 29.1 38,449 59.9 9.6 - 비철금속15,944 17.1 4.5 689 -28.6 14,307 0.6 3.6 ㅇ기 계 류48,556 22.1 13.6 2,142 -30.2 46,652 9.5 11.6 - 정밀기계10,629 31.3 3.0 311 -47.9 8,607 -11.0 2.1 - 수송기계14,021 23.9 3.9 681 -27.5 14,697 22.1 3.7 ․승용차2,430 27.7 0.7 92 -44.7 2,313 11.7 0.6 ․항공기등3,076 0.7 0.9 84 -69.3 2,139 -18.2 0.5 ㅇ전자․전기75,909 9.2 21.3 3,737 -20.1 74,281 11.4 18.5 - 산업용전자22,891 3.8 6.4 1,124 -16.8 22,012 10.7 5.5 - 가정용전자4,548 4.1 1.3 231 -19.7 4,407 10.1 1.1 - 전자부품40,308 14.7 11.3 1,971 -23.5 39,911 12.0 9.9 ․반도체30,817 9.9 8.6 1,440 -25.1 30,000 9.7 7.5 - 중전기기6,418 19.7 1.8 319 -10.0 6,356 13.9 1.6
주요 지역별 수출실적
(백만달러,%)
2007년2008년11.1 ～ 11.201.1 ～ 11.20금액증가율비중금액증가율금액증가율비중전체 수출371,489 14.1 100.0 17,551 -14.4 383,896 18.8 100.0 ㅇ아 시 아188,790 12.1 50.8 8,730 -20.7 197,229 19.8 51.4 - 중 국81,985 18.0 22.1 3,601 -27.8 85,073 18.6 22.2 - 홍 콩18,654 -1.7 5.0 1,006 -14.3 18,227 11.0 4.7 - 일 본26,370 -0.6 7.1 1,374 -13.5 25,600 11.6 6.7 - ASEAN38,749 20.8 10.4 1,785 -16.2 44,853 33.4 11.7 ․싱 가 폴11,949 25.9 3.2 499 -13.9 14,955 44.5 3.9 ․인 니5,771 18.4 1.6 333 20.3 6,871 33.9 1.8 ․말 련5,704 9.1 1.5 239 -19.1 5,312 5.9 1.4 ․태 국4,488 5.7 1.2 245 -0.9 5,351 37.3 1.4 - 대 만13,027 0.2 3.5 393 -39.5 10,754 -5.7 2.8 - 인 도6,600 19.3 1.8 351 10.2 8,271 47.2 2.2 ㅇ북 미49,273 5.3 13.3 2,328 -5.8 45,233 4.7 11.8 - 미 국45,766 6.0 12.3 2,141 -6.2 41,548 3.6 10.8 - 캐 나 다3,506 -3.1 0.9 187 -1.8 3,685 19.6 1.0 ㅇ유 럽71,198 18.1 19.2 3,418 -13.9 70,324 13.5 18.3 - E U55,982 13.7 15.1 2,776 -12.5 53,647 9.8 14.0 ․영 국6,870 21.9 1.8 225 -26.2 5,528 -10.1 1.4 ․독 일11,543 14.8 3.1 487 -22.0 9,760 -2.0 2.5 ․프 랑 스3,478 1.8 0.9 202 -13.0 3,232 3.3 0.8 ․이탈리아4,151 -3.1 1.1 151 -15.8 3,256 -7.7 0.8 - 러 시 아8,088 56.2 2.2 279 -36.2 9,096 31.9 2.4 - 동 구20,837 59.0 5.6 783 -32.8 22,230 23.5 5.8 ㅇ중 동19,721 36.4 5.3 1,242 30.6 23,202 37.6 6.0 - 사 우 디4,026 35.2 1.1 221 17.8 4,630 31.0 1.2 ㅇ중 남 미25,567 25.4 6.9 1,044 -5.8 29,146 32.9 7.6 - 브 라 질3,487 13.8 0.9 190 -12.6 5,649 86.3 1.5 - 멕 시 코7,482 19.1 2.0 256 -50.1 8,522 28.4 2.2 - 칠 레3,115 98.9 0.8 122 7.5 2,830 7.2 0.7 ㅇ대 양 주7,983 17.7 2.1 579 -6.2 9,548 38.9 2.5 - 호 주4,691 0.0 1.3 200 -27.9 4,715 13.9 1.2 ㅇ아 프 리 카8,257 6.8 2.2 166 -54.5 8,558 22.1 2.2 ㅇ브 릭 스 100,160 20.3 27.0 4,420 -25.8 108,088 23.8 28.2
주요 지역별 수입실적
(백만달러,%)
2007년2008년11.1 ～ 11.201.1 ～ 11.20금액증가율비중금액증가율금액증가율비중전체 수입356,846 15.3 100.0 21,521 -4.8 401,505 28.8 100.0 ㅇ아 시 아170,549 16.8 47.8 9,556 -10.0 184,816 23.3 46.0 - 중 국63,028 29.8 17.7 3,792 -4.0 71,112 28.8 17.7 - 홍 콩2,142 2.0 0.6 102 -10.6 1,985 4.7 0.5 - 일 본56,250 8.3 15.8 2,720 -18.2 55,931 13.0 13.9 - ASEAN33,110 11.3 9.3 2,163 -2.0 38,052 30.1 9.5 ․싱 가 폴6,860 16.5 1.9 411 -5.7 7,771 27.2 1.9 ․인 니9,114 3.0 2.6 512 -25.7 10,571 32.9 2.6 ․말 련8,442 16.6 2.4 618 13.2 9,199 23.1 2.3 ․태 국3,769 13.2 1.1 188 -14.3 3,865 15.6 1.0 - 대 만9,967 7.3 2.8 430 -29.0 9,995 15.0 2.5 - 인 도4,624 27.0 1.3 266 -27.4 6,291 53.7 1.6 ㅇ북 미40,474 10.1 11.3 1,873 -26.2 38,991 8.2 9.7 - 미 국37,219 10.6 10.4 1,666 -29.3 35,044 5.7 8.7 - 캐 나 다3,254 5.3 0.9 207 14.2 3,947 36.8 1.0 ㅇ유 럽47,987 28.3 13.4 2,405 -20.8 49,129 17.2 12.2 - E U36,824 22.1 10.3 1,653 -26.7 36,465 13.0 9.1 ․영 국3,581 20.3 1.0 169 -26.4 3,320 4.7 0.8 ․독 일13,534 19.1 3.8 585 -30.9 13,470 13.5 3.4 ․프 랑 스4,043 25.6 1.1 196 -11.6 4,426 26.9 1.1 ․이탈리아3,583 22.9 1.0 212 3.5 3,763 20.6 0.9 - 러 시 아6,977 52.6 2.0 445 -5.3 7,851 31.7 2.0 - 동 구8,605 48.2 2.4 625 7.8 9,943 34.8 2.5 ㅇ중 동67,541 8.0 18.9 5,451 19.5 94,943 64.8 23.6 - 사 우 디21,164 3.0 5.9 1,461 -8.3 32,060 74.5 8.0 ㅇ중 남 미11,321 16.4 3.2 792 19.1 12,587 27.5 3.1 - 브 라 질2,794 3.2 0.8 328 74.3 3,819 61.3 1.0 - 멕 시 코1,013 26.9 0.3 57 5.5 967 9.8 0.2 - 칠 레4,184 9.7 1.2 202 -25.5 4,022 5.6 1.0 ㅇ대 양 주14,592 17.3 4.1 1,270 57.8 17,341 39.6 4.3 - 호 주13,232 17.0 3.7 1,168 57.2 15,942 40.7 4.0 ㅇ아 프 리 카4,317 -1.3 1.2 171 -54.5 3,641 -5.5 0.9 ㅇ브 릭 스 77,423 30.2 21.7 4,831 -2.9 89,073 31.7 22.2
주요 지역별 무역수지
(백만달러,%)
2007년2008년11.1 ～ 11.201.1～11.20수 출수 입무역수지수 출수 입무역수지무역수지총 계371,489 356,846 14,643 17,551 21,521 -3,970 -17,609 ㅇ아 시 아188,790 170,549 18,241 8,730 9,556 -826 12,413 - 중 국81,985 63,028 18,957 3,601 3,792 -191 13,961 - 홍 콩18,654 2,142 16,512 1,006 102 904 16,242 - 일 본26,370 56,250 -29,880 1,374 2,720 -1,346 -30,331 - ASEAN38,749 33,110 5,639 1,785 2,163 -378 6,801 ․싱 가 폴11,949 6,860 5,089 499 411 88 7,184 ․인 니5,771 9,114 -3,343 333 512 -179 -3,700 ․말 련5,704 8,442 -2,738 239 618 -379 -3,887 ․태 국4,488 3,769 719 245 188 57 1,486 - 대 만13,027 9,967 3,060 393 430 -37 759 - 인 도6,600 4,624 1,976 351 266 85 1,980 ㅇ북 미49,273 40,474 8,799 2,328 1,873 455 6,242 - 미 국45,766 37,219 8,547 2,141 1,666 475 6,504 - 캐 나 다3,506 3,254 252 187 207 -20 -262 ㅇ유 럽71,198 47,987 23,211 3,418 2,405 1,013 21,195 - E U55,982 36,824 19,158 2,776 1,653 1,123 17,182 ․영 국6,870 3,581 3,289 225 169 56 2,208 ․독 일11,543 13,534 -1,991 487 585 -98 -3,710 ․프 랑 스3,478 4,043 -565 202 196 6 -1,194 ․이탈리아4,151 3,583 568 151 212 -61 -507 - 러 시 아8,088 6,977 1,111 279 445 -166 1,245 - 동 구20,837 8,605 12,232 783 625 158 12,287 ㅇ중 동19,721 67,541 -47,820 1,242 5,451 -4,209 -71,741 - 사 우 디4,026 21,164 -17,138 221 1,461 -1,240 -27,430 ㅇ중 남 미25,567 11,321 14,246 1,044 792 252 16,559 - 브 라 질3,487 2,794 693 190 328 -138 1,830 - 멕 시 코7,482 1,013 6,469 256 57 199 7,555 - 칠 레3,115 4,184 -1,069 122 202 -80 -1,192 ㅇ대 양 주7,983 14,592 -6,609 579 1,270 -691 -7,793 - 호 주4,691 13,232 -8,541 200 1,168 -968 -11,227 ㅇ아 프 리 카8,257 4,317 3,940 166 171 -5 4,917 ㅇ브 릭 스 100,160 77,423 22,737 4,420 4,831 -411 19,015
South Korea Posts Current-Account Surplus in November (Update3)
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By William Sim
Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) -- South Korea posted a current-account surplus for a second straight month in November, easing pressure on the won, the region's worst-performing currency this year.
The surplus widened to $2.06 billion from $1.67 billion in November 2007, the Bank of Korea said in Seoul today. A surplus means there are more U.S. dollars flowing into the country than going out, increasing demand for the local currency. The nation posted a record $4.75 billion excess in October.
The won climbed to 10-week high after the report. The currency has gained 21 percent since setting a decade low on Nov. 21 amid speculation the central bank bought it to help bolster balance sheets before year-end accounts are filed and after the government signed swap deals with the U.S., China and Japan, giving access to dollars.
“Things are looking better as we had a good surplus again last month,” said Chun Chong Woo, a senior economist at SC First Bank Korea Ltd. in Seoul. “It'll help stabilize the currency if this trend continues. The worst seems to be over for the won.”
A decline by the won earlier this year led to speculation that the government may have return to the International Monetary Fund for help 10 years after a bailout during the Asian financial crisis. President Lee Myung Bak said last week the economy may shrink in the first half of next year, which would mark the nation's first recession in a decade.
The Korean currency rose 0.6 percent to 1,257.75 per dollar at 11:09 a.m. in Seoul. The won's 26 percent this year makes it the region's worst performing currency. The Kospi stock index gained 1.7 percent.
More Surpluses
South Korea may keep posting current-account surpluses in coming months as imports fall faster than exports amid a decline in oil costs, Yang Jae Ryong, a statistics official at the central bank, said in Seoul today. The current account is the broadest measure of trade, tracking goods, services and investment income.
The nation's current account has been in deficit every month but three this year as higher oil prices and the weaker won drove up the cost of imported goods.
The surplus on traded goods narrowed to $994.6 million last month from $2.63 billion in October, today's report showed. The trade surplus was $2.72 billion in November 2007.
Total exports on a customs-cleared basis, which excludes ships, dropped 19 percent in November from a year earlier, compared with an 8 percent gain in October. Imports fell 14.9 percent compared with a 10.3 percent gain in October.
South Korea's income account, which tracks the flow of interest payments, investment income and wages, posted a surplus of $720.2 million last month.
The deficit on the services account, which measures the international flow of travel, transport costs and royalties, widened to $130 million from $54.8 million.
The capital account, a measure of total inflows and outflows of international investment, recorded a deficit of $12.14 billion last month, narrowing from October's shortfall of $24.83 billion.
To contact the reporter on this story: William Sim in Seoul at wsim2@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: December 29, 2008 21:20 EST
Looking at April`s balance of payment figures, the service account deficit, which tracks travel, transportation costs and royalties, narrowed from $651.9 million in March to $453 million last month. (출처: The Korea Herald)
4월 국제수지를 살펴 보면 여행 경비, 운송비, 로열티 거래를 집계한 서비스수지의 적자폭은 3월의 6억5천190만달러에서 4억5천300만달러로 축소되었다.
Global oil prices have been rising faster than we expected, said Jeong Sam-yong, head of the central bank`s balance of payments team, at a news briefing. (출처: The Korea Herald)
“유가가 예상보다 빨리 오르고 있다”고 정삼용 한국은행 국제수지팀장이 기자 설명회에서 말했다.
In December, the current account surplus will shrink a bit due to a decline in trade balance, said Jeong Sam-yong, head of the BOK`s balance of payments statistics team. (출처: The Korea Herald)
“12월에는 경상수지 흑자가 무역수지 감소로 인해 약간 줄어들 것”이라고 정삼용 한국은행 국제수지팀장이 말했다.
Second, significantly higher levels of international reserves and current account surpluses since the Asian crisis provide a cushion against the short-term deterioration in balance of payments. (출처: The Korea Herald)
둘째로 아시아 금융위기 이래로 상당히 높아진 외화보유고와 경상수지 흑자는 단기적인 국제수지 악화에 완충 역할을 하고 있다.
In addition to the GDP growth rate, the bank plans to gradually make other economic indices, including international balance of payments, more focused on quarterly changes rather than yearly ones. (출처: The Korea Herald)
한국은행은 GDP 성장률뿐만 아니라 국제수지 등 다른 경제지표들도 연간 변동보다는 분기별 변동에 초점을 두어나갈 계획이다.
Overseas investors withdrew investment on concern about the won`s rapid strength that could damage Korea`s exports on which its economic recovery hinges, explained Lee In-gyu at the BOK`s balance of payments team. (출처: The Korea Herald)
“외국인 투자자들은 원화의 급속한 절상으로 우리나라 경기 회복 여부가 달려 있는 수출이 타격을 입을 것을 우려해 투자 금액을 회수하고 있다”고 한국은행 경제통계국 국제수지팀 이인규 차장은 설명했다.
Since the mid-1980s, Madagascar has run sizeable balance-of-payment deficits. (출처: Wikipedia)
It is an asymmetrical relationship in which the colonial power enjoys positive terms of trade and balance of payment. (출처: Herald Tribune)
He fought a lonely battle too against growing balance-of-payment problems with the nation's trading partners, a situation that grew much more pronounced in the coming decades. (출처: Wikipedia)
Portfolio investment is part of the capital account on the balance of payments statistics. (출처: Wikipedia)
Economic growth stagnated, and cocoa exports dropped in both value and volume, creating large balance-of-payments deficits. (출처: Wikipedia)
One of the most noticeable economic achievements in the 1980s was Seoul's reversal of the balance of payments deficit to a surplus. (출처: Wikipedia)
In other words, the United States would have to reverse the natural economic processes and run a balance of payments deficit. (출처: Wikipedia)
However, running the balance of payments deficits in the long term would erode confidence in the dollar. (출처: Wikipedia)
Throughout the 1950s Washington sustained a balance of payments deficit in order to finance loans, aid, and troops for allied regimes. (출처: Wikipedia)
The cost of oil loomed as the major component of the New Zealand balance of payments deficit. (출처: Wikipedia)
A housing boom and a balance of payments deficit spiralling out of control. (출처: USENET)
The rise in world interest rates increased sharply Brazil's balance of payments problem and the size of the foreign debt. (출처: Wikipedia)
It first met in 1963, to investigate international currency problems, particularly the balance of payments crisis which America faced throughout the early 1960's. (출처: Wikipedia)
India started having balance of payments problems since 1985, and by the end of 1990, it was in a serious economic crisis. (출처: Wikipedia)
S.Korea to ease forex accounting rules to aid cos
Mon Dec 22, 2008 8:30am IST Email | Print | Share| Single Page[-] Text [+]
SEOUL, Dec 22 (Reuters) - South Korea will loosen accounting rules to help companies anticipating large foreign exchange-related losses this year due to a sharp fall in the won's
As South Korea's export-focused companies struggle with the spreading global downturn and tighter credit, they are set to see a surge in the value of their foreign currency debt and currency conversion losses in their 2008 financial results.
Local companies see a combined 5 trillion won ($3.9 billion) increase in foreign currency conversion losses and foreign debt value in won terms for every 100 won gain in the dollar/won rate, the Financial Services Commission (FSC) said in a statement.
"As large foreign exchange-related losses are expected to deteriorate companies' financial sheets, they are set to suffer from lower credit ratings, possible debt collection, higher financial costs and difficulties in securing new funds," the commission said.
Hit by the global financial crisis, the won's
To help companies minimise foreign exchange losses and enhance their capital base, the FSC said it would seek special changes to some accounting rules that could be applied retroactively to 2008 annual results.
For listed companies and large-sized unlisted firms, the regulator will allow them to book increases in the value of certain company assets, such as real estate, airplanes and ships, in this year's balance sheets.
It will also allow companies to use foreign currency loans and other financial products as hedging methods in accounting and to not book foreign currency conversion losses from them in the year's earnings.
For non-listed small- and medium-sized companies, the FSC will allow them to apply the foreign exchange rate at mid-2008 to value their foreign assets and debt held as of end-June, which will help them reduce losses from the won's fall in the second half.
Since end-June this year, the local currency has fallen 19 percent against the dollar.
The regulator will also allow companies which mostly trade in foreign currency to create foreign currency-based accounting books and report only their final year-end results in won, so they can minimise losses from the exchange rate swings over the year.
Those changes will likely be made official by mid-January following the approval of the commission, the FSC said. ($1=1282.0 Won) (Reporting by Rhee So-eui; Editing by Jonathan Hopfner)
The nation`s state-run financial firms will release some 200 trillion won ($142 billion) into the market next year to provide liquidity to cash-strapped companies and households and boost growth-engine industries, the Financial Services Commission said yesterday.
Reporting to President Lee Myung-bak, the five state-run financial firms under the FSC said that they will encourage lenders to extend loans of 130 trillion won, up by 25 trillion won from this year, to households and companies. They will also increase credit guarantees by 14 trillion won to 66 trillion won next year.
The five state-run organizations plan to provide a total of 69.7 trillion won to households and firms faltering from a liquidity pinch. Some 37.6 trillion won has been set aside for the financially neglected, including smaller firms, households and students.
The Korea Development Bank, Korea Asset Management Corporation and the Korea Housing Finance Corporation will spend 10.2 trillion won to buy out bad loans held by commercial lenders and liquidate corporate and housing loans.
The KDB will inject an additional 1 trillion won into bond fund, which the bank has already invested 1 trillion won this year in a bid to provide liquidity to cash-strapped companies. The state-run bank will also invest 2 trillion won in local banks to raise commercial lenders` BIS capital adequacy ratio.
KAMCO has set aside 2.7 trillion won to buy out bad loans held by commercial lenders. The corporation will primarily purchase 1.3 trillion won in default loans held by savings banks extended to property developers.
The KDB and the Industrial Bank of Korea will provide 11 trillion won and 9 trillion won each to firms suffering from a temporary liquidity pinch. Some 14.5 trillion won, in particular, will be used to support small- and medium-sized firms, they said.
The two state-run banks will also invest 41 trillion won in order to nurture growth-engine industries next year, which include green-growth industries, service industries and new facility investment by SME enterprises.
The Export Import Bank of Korea will provide $11 billion in the local forex market to maintain stable foreign currency reserves. It will also offer some 44 trillion won to smaller firms whose income highly depends on exports.
The Korea Housing Finance Corporation and the IBK will provide 5 trillion won and 3.7 trillion won each to support banks to extend new housing loans to households. KAMCO and the housing corporation together will guarantee up to 12.4 trillion won in order to facilitate borrowings by low income households and students.
While trying to privatize the state-run organizations, firms will try to raise efficiency by downsizing their corporations. The Korea Deposit Insurance Corporation will sell government-owned shares in firms such as Woori Financial Holdings Inc., Shinhan Financial Holdings Inc. and Korea Life Insurance by 2012. The KDIC, however, said that it will consider market condition to decide when and how it will sell its shares in these firms.
KAMCO will also sell its shares in Daewoo affiliates within the next year.
The FSC said that the five public financial firms will also reduce their workforce by 10 to 15 percent by 2012 and cut executive officers` wage by up to 48 percent next year.
By Jeong Hyeon-ji
(hannahj@heraldm.com)
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