(서울=연합인포맥스) 황병극 기자= 우리나라 기관투자가가 해외에서 투자한 외화증권 투자잔액이 급감했다. 자산운용사들이 해외주식 투자에서 대량으로 평가손을 입은데다 보험사들이 보유한 외화채권을 판 것이 가장 큰 이유이다.

By yesterday, the government sold up to 17 trillion won in bonds to fund dollar purchases and hold down the won. (출처: The Korea Herald)
어제까지 정부는 달러 매수자금을 마련하여 원화를 내리기 위해 17조원의 채권을 매각했다.
Government attempts to stall the appreciation had little effect, as its verbal warnings proved too weak and actual intervention through dollar buying reached the parliament-set annual ceiling. (출처: The Korea Herald)
경고가 너무 미약했고 달러 매수를 통한 시장 개입이 국회가 정한 연간 한도에 도달했기 때문에 원화 강세를 막기 위한 정부의 노력은 거의 효과를 거두지 못했다.
The Ministry of FInance and Economy earlier said that it would sell a record 5 trillion won ($4.8 billion) of foreign-exchange stabilization bonds this month, the proceeds of which can purchase dollars. (출처: The Korea Herald)
재정경제부는 앞서 이달에 그 대금이 달러 매수에 사용되는 외국환평형채권을 사상최대 규모인 5조원(48억불)을 매각해 그 대금으로 달러화를 매수하겠다고 발표했다.



Korea Won Leads Gain in Asia Currencies This Week; Rupiah Falls
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By Kim Kyoungwha and Bob Chen
Nov. 28 (Bloomberg) -- South Korea’s won rallied this week, leading gains in Asian currencies, as the nation’s record current-account surplus eased a shortage of dollars. The Philippine peso posted its biggest weekly advance in four months.
Seven of the region’s 10 most-traded currencies excluding the yen strengthened over the past five days as shares rose the most in a month after China’s largest interest-rate cut in 11 years. Indonesia’s rupiah and the Thai baht fell for a third week.
“Risk appetite is improving slightly,” said Mitul Kotecha, Hong Kong-based global head of foreign-exchange strategy at Calyon, a unit of France’s Credit Agricole SA. “The trend is still downwards for Asian currencies going into next year. There are still dollar demand and growth concerns.”
The won rose 1.8 percent this week to 1,469 per dollar as of 3 p.m. in Seoul, according to Seoul Money Brokerage Services Ltd. The advance pared this month’s decline to 11 percent, the worst among the world’s 16 most-active currencies. The peso climbed 1.8 percent on the week to 48.96 a dollar.
In South Korea, foreign investors bought more local shares than they sold for a third consecutive day, the longest stretch since the end of October. Finance Minister Kang Man-Soo said the current-account surplus will exceed $1 billion this month after a record $4.9 billion surplus in October.
“The surplus provides a big psychological boost to the currency market,” said Jeff Kim, a currency dealer with Korea Exchange Bank in Seoul. “An uncontrollable surge in the dollar isn’t there anymore but month-end import deals are flowing in.”
‘Rally in Stocks’
Risk appetite revived as policy makers across the globe unveiled measures to shore up confidence. The People’s Bank of China cut its one-year lending rate by 1.08 percentage points to 5.58 percent on Nov. 26, on the heels of the Federal Reserve’s $800 billion commitment to counter a seizure in credit markets.
The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index of regional shares soared 6.8 percent this week to 82.66, snapping two weeks of losses.
“Sentiment has improved on regional currencies given the rally in U.S. and Asian stock prices,” said Joanna Tan, an economist at Forecast Pte in Singapore. “The overarching factor is still heightening risks to growth.”
The yen headed for its third monthly advance against the dollar and its fourth monthly gain against the euro after the European Union proposed a 200 billion euro ($258 billion) stimulus package.
Japan’s currency traded at 95.29 per dollar from 95.19 late yesterday and 95.96 a week ago. It was quoted at 123.29 per euro in Tokyo from 122.89 yesterday, for a 2.9 percent decline this week.
Filipino Remittances
The Philippine peso gained this month on speculation remittances from the more than 8 million Filipinos abroad will increase as the year-end holidays approach. Funds sent home rose 17 percent to $12.3 billion in the first nine months of 2008 from a year earlier, according to the central bank.
Thailand’s baht slumped to a 21-month low on concern political unrest will slow growth in Southeast Asia’s second- biggest economy. The government declared a state of emergency at airports in Bangkok, which were shut by protesters demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat.
“We’ve seen domestic demand weaken all throughout the year, hurt by the political turbulence and amid a sharply slowing global economy,” said Nicholas Bibby, an economist at Barclays Bank Plc in Singapore. “We’re expecting the baht to drift weaker from here, partly due to the political situation.”
The baht fell 0.7 percent on the week to 35.46 per dollar, the second worst-performing currency after the Indonesian rupiah, which slumped 1.6 percent this week to 12,300. India’s rupee fell 1.2 percent today to 50.055 after gunmen killed at least 121 people in attacks across the financial capital of Mumbai.
Elsewhere, the Malaysian ringgit was little changed for the week at 3.6250 and the Taiwan Dollar reached as high as NT$33.216 today, up 0.3 percent from the end of last week, before trading at NT$33.295.
To contact the reporters on this story: Kim Kyoungwha in Beijing at kkim19@bloomberg.net. Bob Chen in Hong Kong at bchen45@bloomberg.net.




Finance October 27, 2008, 7:14AM EST text size: TT
Yen Keeps Rising as Japan Stocks Hit 26-Year Low
Unless the currency suddenly retreats, economists think Japan is headed for a recession. Forecasts, meanwhile, for big exporters like Sony and Toyota are bleak
By Ian Rowley and Kenji Hall
The global credit crunch and market rout are clearly scaring Japanese officials. On Oct. 27, Tokyo took the unusual step of rallying the world's richest nations to warn investors that the Japanese currency's rise to its highest level in years poses a threat to the global economy. In a statement, the Group of Seven specifically singled out the yen's "recent volatility" as a possible factor in undermining "economic and financial stability."
The G-7's show of solidarity came hours after Japan's Finance Minister, Shoichi Nakagawa, used strong language condemning the yen's sharp rise last week to a 13-year high against the dollar and six-year high against the euro. Traders viewed the remarks as a signal that Japanese financial authorities stood ready to intervene for the first time since early 2004.
Action can't come soon enough in the view of many market watchers. "This massive strengthening in the value of the Japanese yen," Standard Chartered Bank (STAN.L) currency analysts wrote in an Oct. 24 report, "is coming at exactly the wrong time." They predicted "it may not be long before we see the Japanese authorities intervene to limit the slide."
Nikkei Index Falls 6.4%
Help may be on the way, but it didn't arrive today. With critics complaining that the comments from Nakagawa and the G-7 had little impact, the yen kept on gaining strength against the dollar, trading at around 93 yen and the euro at 116 yen. The rising yen, combined with concern that plans by Japanese banks to raise capital may dilute shareholdings, knocked Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index to its lowest level in 26 years. The index finished 6.4% lower, at 7,162.90, a level not seen since October 1982. This month alone, the Nikkei has given up 36%; since January, it has fallen 53%.
The concern is that a strong yen and global slowdown will end up hurting Japanese exports, which have long been the one bright spot in the domestic economy. In the past three months, the yen has risen 19% against the dollar, 32% against the euro, 33% against the British pound, and 37% against the Brazilian real. By contrast, the Korean won is down more than 45% against the dollar this year, giving Korean exporters a leg up (BusinessWeek.com, 10/24/08) on the Japanese.
Unless the yen suddenly retreats, economists think Japan's economy is headed for a recession. "Over the next 12 months, we now expect Japan's gross domestic product to shrink by 0.4%," says Japan Research Institute senior economist Hideki Matsumura.
For months it seemed that Japan's biggest banks had largely avoided the U.S. subprime mortgages-related losses, especially as Japanese financial institutions were buying up ailing rivals. After the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Nomura Securities bought its European and Asian operations, while Mitsubishi UFJ spent $9 billion on a 21% stake in Morgan Stanley (MS).
Bleak Profit Outlooks
But last week, Sony's (SNE) profit warning highlighted the problems Japan Inc., and especially its exporters, faces. The technology giant slashed its annual operating profit forecast (BusinessWeek.com, 10/23/08) by 57%, and said there could be more currency-related pain if the yen holds steady. Sony earns three-quarters of its revenues outside Japan, so it can be viewed as an extreme case of what happens when the yen swings too suddenly in the wrong direction.
This week is turning out to be no different for other big exporters. Today, camera and copier maker Canon (CAJ), one of the country's top performers in recent years, said it would post its first profit decline in nine years. The company now expects operating profit of $6.2 billion through March 2009, down from $7.6 billion last year. (Canon's shares ended the day down 10.9%.) And JPMorgan (JPM) reckons that Panasonic (PC), which will announce first-half earnings on Oct. 28, will struggle between now and the end of its fiscal year in March 2009 amid weaker demand for flat TVs and other digital gizmos.
Even Japan's car industry is hurting, despite years of building plants overseas to offset currency swings. In a recent note to investors, Nikko Citigroup analyst Noriyuki Matsushima predicted "a sudden and substantial earnings decline" for Toyota (TM). Matsushima expects Toyota to post operating earnings of $11 billion, a 50% decline compared with the year that ended Mar. 31, and $5 billion less than the company's projection. On Oct. 27, Toyota announced it had cut back output in the face of declining demand. In the nine months of this year, the company produced 7.2 million vehicles globally, down 3.2% from last year, while sales fell 4% in the last quarter. And while the worldwide slowdown will likely lead to a further slump in sales, in the short term it's the soaring yen that's likely to hurt earnings. UBS (UBS) estimates that for every one yen rise against the dollar, Toyota's operating earnings drop by about $500 million. Every one yen appreciation against the euro, meanwhile, costs about $85 million.
Rowley is a correspondent in BusinessWeek's Tokyo bureau. Hall is BusinessWeek's technology correspondent in Tokyo.



Korea becomes a net debtor
It`s official: Korea is now a net debtor nation.The Bank of Korea said yesterday that the country`s external debt exceeded its credit in September, making it a net debtor for the first time in eight years.Overseas liabilities rose for a 16th straight quarter to a record $425.1 billion, while credit shrank to $399.9 billion, tipping the balance into a net debt of $25.1 billion."A sharp drop in stock investment by foreign investors was one of the main factors behind the change of status to a net debtor," explained Yang Jae-ryong, a BOK official.Short-term debt maturing within a year accounted for 44.6 percent of the total liabilities, up by 2.6 percentage points from three months earlier.The net debtor status is particularly ominous for Korea, which was close to default during the Asian financial crisis in part because of a surge in short-term overseas debt that exceeded the country`s foreign currency reserves. The government has been amassing funds since then, becoming the world`s sixth-largest holder of foreign reserves - $212.2 billion at the end of October.That pool of cash is shrinking, as the country used it to defend the falling won and provide liquidity to the local banking sector. It is widely expected to have fallen below $200 this month.However, Korean officials say they are not worried."There is no need to worry too much about the figures, because about $111 billion of the liabilities are those that we don`t have to worry about," for example, loans that domestic branches of foreign banks took out from their headquarters overseas, Yang said.The country has posted a record current account surplus of $4.9 billion in October, after three months of deficits. Finance Minister Kang Man-soo said yesterday that it would continue posting a surplus - although the amount reduced to around $1 billion - in the remaining months.By Lee Sun-young




Economics & Policy November 5, 2008, 8:34AM EST text size: TT
Obama Faces Tests in Japan and Korea
From security issues to trade, multinational executives from Korea and Japan aren't yet sure whether to celebrate the Democrat's victory or not
By Ian Rowley and Moon Ihlwan
Throughout the world, people have welcomed President-Elect Barack Obama. The reaction was especially enthusiastic in the Japanese city of Obama, located in Fukui prefecture, 300 miles west of Tokyo. On Nov. 5, as election returns showed the city's namesake heading toward a big victory over rival John McCain, locals celebrated by chanting the Illinois Senator's name, dancing Hawaiian-style dances, and eating specially prepared "Obama"-branded hamburgers and sweets.
In the head offices of Japanese multinationals, though, executives aren't sure whether to celebrate or not. Japan's big exporters are suffering amid slumping demand for electronics and autos and the effects of the strength of the yen. Year to date, Japan's stock market is down more than 35% and most economists expect a recession. Carmakers such as Toyota (TM) and Honda (HMC) are keen to see how a Democratic Administration handles the ailing health of the U.S. Big Three automakers amid calls for a bailout of Detroit. Despite falling sales in the U.S., Japanese automakers continue to increase market share, prompting fears of a backlash.
For all that, the early signs are positive: After the U.S. television networks announced Obama's win, Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index rose 4.5%, closing at 9,521.
America's closet ally in Asia will seek assurances from Obama on regional security issues. Japan's ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party, will closely scrutinize changes to U.S. relations with China and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Japan's Maritime Self-Defense Force is involved in a refueling mission in the Indian Ocean in support of U.S.-led antiterrorism operations in and close to Afghanistan.
Handling North Korea
With Kim Jong Il suffering serious health problems (BusinessWeek.com, 9/9/08), the Japanese will also be looking at how Obama changes U.S. policy toward North Korea. Much of the country was outraged in October when the Bush Administration removed North Korea from a list of terrorist countries (BusinessWeek.com, 10/13/08) in exchange for Pyongyang's agreement to verification measures for its nuclear activities. Families of Japanese citizens kidnapped by North Korea in the late 1970s and 1980s condemned the move, and the Japanese government was upset that it was informed of the development only 30 minutes in advance. Japan's Finance Minister, Shoichi Nakagawa, said the U.S. decision was "extremely regrettable."
Making North Korea implement its promise to dismantle its nuclear weapons program will be a major security challenge for Obama. He has called the Bush Administration's decision to remove North Korea from the terrorism blacklist a "modest step forward" but has said there must be an understanding of the consequences for North Korea if it does not follow through on its commitments. Obama's willingness to talk directly to U.S. adversaries such as Pyongyang has created some worries in Seoul that South Korea's voice in determining the fate of the Korean peninsula could weaken as there will be increasingly little room for President Lee Myung Bak's government to play a role. Lee has criticized the so-called "sunshine policy" pursued by his predecessors, Roh Moo Hyun and Kim Dae Jung, arguing the South had only prolonged the oppressive regime of Kim Jong Il without addressing his nuclear ambitions and human rights issues in the North.
Revisiting the South Korea Trade Deal?
On trade, Koreans are looking to see what Obama will do to a 2007 bilateral free trade agreement with South Korea. The trade pact with South Korea, the U.S.'s seventh-largest trading partner, is by far the biggest such deal negotiated by the Bush Administration and the largest U.S. deal since the North American Free Trade Agreement. The U.S. International Trade Commission has estimated it would increase annual U.S. exports to South Korea by between $10 billion and $11 billion and increase imports from Korea by between $6.4 billion and $6.9 billion.
The Bush Administration has said the pact will level the auto-trade playing field by eliminating South Korea's 8% tariff on U.S. auto imports and reducing regulatory barriers. In turn, the U.S. will have to eliminate a 2.5% tariff on South Korean cars. However, Obama has said he opposes the deal, which he has called "badly flawed" in its handling of U.S. car exports. He has called for the two sides to renegotiate and secure greater access to the Korean market for U.S. automakers.
Rowley is a correspondent in BusinessWeek's Tokyo bureau. Moon is BusinessWeek's Seoul bureau chief.



Korea posted the largest-ever current account surplus in October on declining imports and less overseas travel.The Bank of Korea said yesterday that the surplus reached $4.91 billion, after a deficit of $1.35 billion in September. It was the biggest monthly amount since it started compiling data in 1980 and a turnaround from straight months of deficits. Korea now has accumulated a deficit of $9 billion.It is a "stunning improvement," said Patrick Bennett, a Hong Kong-based currency strategist at Societe Generale."But further record surpluses are not anticipated as imports should stabilize but exports continue to slow," he said.A sharp decline in imports, driven by lower prices of oil and raw materials, has helped the country to report a record current account surplus, said Yang Jae-ryong, head of the central bank`s balance of payments statistics team."The deficit on the services account narrowed a lot as overseas travel shrank because of the local currency`s weakness against the dollar," he added.In November, the country is likely to post a surplus of around $1 billion, the Finance Ministry said yesterday.The current account is the broadest measure of trade, tracking goods, services and investment income.A surplus means more funds flowing into the country than going out, which should help ease a shortage of dollars gripping local banks, providing some relief to the beleaguered won.The Korean won gained ground against the dollar yesterday, on the positive data and the BOK`s plan to receive $4 billion from the Federal Reserve. It closed 0.14 percent higher at 1,476 won per dollar.The goods account swung to a surplus of $2.79 billion in October, from a deficit of $890 million the previous month, central bank data showed.A shortfall in the service account, which includes Korean spending on overseas trips, narrowed to $50 million last month from 1.24 billion in September.The deficit on the capital account, which tracks cross-border investments, widened to a record $25.53 billion, compared with a net outflow of $4.78 billion a month earlier, as local lenders repaid part of their foreign loans.By Lee Sun-young





Autos November 6, 2008, 10:49AM EST text size: TT
Toyota Profits Tumble as Yen Soars
The Japanese automaker's projected earnings are down drastically from last year. And the drop at Toyota is even sharper than at Honda or Nissan
By Ian Rowley
In the auto sector, the bad news just keeps coming. On Nov. 6 in Tokyo, Toyota Motor (TM) announced results that were grim even in comparison to rivals Honda Motor (HMC) and Nissan Motor (NSANY), which recently cut their full-year earnings forecasts and now expect operating profits to plunge 42% and 51%, respectively. Speaking to reporters, Toyota Executive Vice-President Mitsuo Kinoshita said Toyota would make operating profits of $6.1 billion in the fiscal year ending in March 2009, a decrease of 73.6% from a year ago.
Kinoshita, casting blame on the strength of the Japanese yen, slumping U.S. and European markets, and high raw materials costs, said the current plight of carmakers was unprecedented. "The auto market is in a very severe situation," he said. To boost earnings in 2009 and 2010, Toyota has formed an Emergency Profit Improvement Committee, led by CEO Katsuaki Watanabe, which will search for new ways to trim costs and reevaluate the size and timing of all new projects.
Other Japanese automakers are feeling the pain of the currency's rise, too. Addressing the growing concerns, Honda CEO Takeo Fukui on Nov. 6 said the Japanese government should intervene to weaken the yen. "Foreign exchange has to stabilize," Fukui told reporters at the launch of new a minicar for the Japanese market.
Thicker, Darker Clouds
As a sign of the speed with which the auto outlook is worsening, Kinoshita said one reason Toyota's forecast is gloomier than those of rivals is partly because it posted results later. "Every week the situation gets worse," Kinoshita explained. For instance, Nissan announced its results Oct. 28 and Honda on Oct. 31, before U.S. sales figures for October had been released. Since then, the numbers have come out, showing just how bad the U.S. market has become: U.S. auto sales in October slumped 32% year on year. For Toyota, the drop was 23%, despite the implementation of a 0% financing scheme for 11 models. The current outlook remains "very difficult," Kinoshita added.
Comparing Toyota's financial performance during the six months through Sept. 30 with its new full-year projection shows just how tough a few months Toyota now expects. During the first half of the fiscal year, Toyota's operating income came to $5.9 billion. That means, given its $6.1 billon earnings forecast for the full year, it's expecting to make only $200 million between October and the end of March.
If the yen fails to recover from recent highs against the dollar and other currencies, Toyota could even face a loss in the second half. Analysts say a one-yen appreciation of the Japanese currency against the dollar, for example, reduces Toyota's earnings by $450 million; a one-yen appreciation against the euro costs $80 million. The yen is currently at 98.2 to the dollar, 1.8 yen stronger than Toyota's 100-yen-to-the-dollar projection for the current six-month period. Against the euro the yen is at 126.5, compared with a projection of 130.
Bodes Ill for Industry
Perhaps most worrisome is what Toyota's downbeat forecast signals for the rest of the auto industry. After all, many industry watchers reckon Toyota, underpinned by a bulletproof balance sheet and a wide lineup of vehicles, is among the best-placed to ride out the storm (BusinessWeek.com, 10/20/08). And for all the current woes in the U.S., where Toyota temporarily shuttered three plants as part of huge production shakeup, its market share continues to rise, reaching a record 17% in the six months through September. Sales in emerging markets, such as China—where Toyota recently overtook General Motors (GM) as the No. 2 automaker—have also held up.
U.S. automakers, of course, are unaffected by the yen's surge, which Toyota projects will cost it $7 billion this fiscal year. Nevertheless, after losing share to Japanese rivals throughout 2008, earnings announcements at troubled GM and Ford (F) on Nov. 7 are unlikely to deliver any relief.
Rowley is a correspondent in BusinessWeek's Tokyo bureau.





FinanceAsia.com November 26, 2008, 8:06AM EST text size: TT
A Bright Spot on the Horizon for Asian M&A
Results of a recent Finance Asi survey suggest guarded optimism prevails with respect to M&A across the region
By Sameera Anand
Uncertainty has continued to plague financial markets across the world this year and both equity and fixed-income deals have been difficult to execute. M&A seemed to be the bright spot on the horizon for the first half of the year as a number of Asia outbound deals were announced. In some cases it seemed that depressed valuations in subprime-affected markets coupled with private equity firms becoming less active as leverage dried up, was playing to the advantage of Asian acquirers. Targets were becoming cheaper and the competition was diminishing.
But by the second half of the year, the subprime crisis caused Asia's equity markets to correct, short-term credit to dry up and the bank financing market to tighten. Acquirers dependent on external financing found the cost of raising capital prohibitive and investors less receptive to financing their growth ambitions.
Clifford Chance and FinanceAsia decided to survey those in the know about their prognosis for 2009 and beyond. Our survey was conducted in October and received 250 responses. Our respondents are well-placed to comment on M&A markets: 150 of them, representing 60% of the sample in aggregate, work directly in financial services. The largest category of our respondents, 28%, work in investment banking, while another 19% work in asset management (including private equity and alternative assets) and 13% in commercial banking. The overwhelming majority of our respondents, 82%, are based either in Greater China or in Southeast Asia, including India.
Corroborating the frequently expressed view that Asia will not be as badly affected by the meltdown as Western markets, 68% of our respondents expect cross-border outbound M&A from Asia-Pacific strategic acquirers during the next 12 to 18 months to either increase over the previous year or stay at similar levels. Another 72% expect intra-Asia-Pacific M&A to increase or stay at similar levels.
"A clear majority [of respondents] see the mid-sized range of between $100 million and $1 billion, as the most active sector of the M&A market," says Jamie Paton, the head of private equity firm Candover in Asia, commenting on the survey results. After all, uncertain environments don't create the confidence needed for mega-deals.
At the same time, a majority of respondents, around 60%, expect cross-border inbound M&A from non-Asia-Pacific strategic acquirers to decrease over the previous year. We can't say we're surprised—companies in Western markets currently have their hands full assessing the impact on their businesses from the recessionary conditions. Looking eastwards for acquisitions is not something we expect them to have too much time for.
"We still continue to see inbound activity," says Roger Denny, head of M&A Asia at Clifford Chance. "However, with recession looming—if not already underway—in many Western economies and bailouts in the financial services sector, we may actually see an increase in the number of disposals of Asian businesses by Western companies."
Mainland China is the country that our respondents expect to be home to the most investors and acquirers next year. This was a dominant theme of Asia-outbound M&A in 2008 as well. Whether Chinese companies continue to be acquisitive in 2009 will depend on a number of things, including how much the economy is impacted by the export slowdown.
"This year, we have seen strong strategic cases for China outbound investment, including some of the transactions on which we have advised—the China Oilfield Services acquisition of Oslo-listed Awilco Offshore for $2.5 billion; Chinalco's acquisition of a stake in Rio Tinto; and China Merchants Bank's takeover of Wing Lung Bank," adds Denny of Clifford Chance.
"Irrespective of any slowdown in growth in China, I believe the longer term rationale for these types of acquisitions remains, and the correction in the markets could well provide better opportunities for Chinese strategic acquirers," he says.
Following China are the Middle East and Japan. Outbound activity from the Middle East went quiet in 2008 following a number of deals in 2007. Some market observers suggest that the sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) based in the region were daunted by the performance of their investments in banks. Among others, the investments by Abu Dhabi Investment Authority in Citi and by Kuwait Investment Authority in Merrill Lynch have not yielded the returns the SWFs may have anticipated.
Other reasons for the slowdown in activity could include the impact of the drop in oil prices on all oil-driven economies. Middle Eastern investors could also be waiting for markets to bottom out further. But our respondents seem confident they will be back in the game soon. Indeed, in October SWFs from Abu Dhabi and Qatar agreed to invest £5.8 billion ($9.1 billion) in British bank Barclays, which suggests that for the right investments, the appetite is still there.
Japan's ascendancy to a top three position is not surprising. Japanese companies have used the last few years to create healthy cash reserves and are backed by a strong banking system. The need to secure future growth has already driven a number of Japanese firms to pursue cross-border deals this year. Japanese liquor majors Suntory and Kirin emerged winners in competitive auctions for Australasian food and beverage businesses this year, driven by precisely these factors.
"While the majority of respondents note that M&A activity will be tougher to execute, many still see Asian companies seeking to adopt a global strategy," sums up Paton of Candover.
Anand is a writer at FinanceAsia.com.






Goldman Sachs Stalls Panasonic's Sanyo Acquisition
Sumitomo Mitsui Banking still favors a deal. Should Daiwa SMBC agree, Goldman could be outvoted, giving Panasonic control of Sanyo Electric
By Kenji Hall
When Panasonic President Fumio Ohtsubo said in early November that the company was interested acquiring mid-sized tech manufacturer Sanyo Electric, he envisioned finalizing the deal by late December (BusinessWeek.com, 11/7/08). The path to forming a tech giant with $110 billion in annual revenues seemed clear-cut: Panasonic would start by buying out Sanyo's three biggest investors (BusinessWeek.com, 11/6/08)—Goldman Sachs (GS), Daiwa SMBC Capital and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking—for their combined 70% stake.
But that's not how things are playing out. On Nov. 26, after nearly three weeks of discussions, Goldman Sachs said it had rejected Panasonic's offer earlier in the week and walked out of the talks. "We didn't agree on the price and the deal structure," says Goldman Sachs spokeswoman Miyako Takebe in Tokyo.
Panasonic was offering 120 yen for each Sanyo share, according to Daiwa SMBC and other sources. That's roughly $7.8 billion, or three times the $2.6 billion that Goldman, Daiwa, and Sumitomo Mitsui coughed up for their Sanyo stakes in January 2006, less than three years ago.
Daiwa SMBC left the door open
Still, the offer was 23% below Sanyo's stock price at the close of trading on Nov. 25. (Sanyo stock lost 3.9% Nov. 26.) And it fell far short of the 250 yen per share that Goldman wanted, according to the Yomiuri Shimbun and financial daily Nikkei newspapers.
Among Sanyo's trio of key investors, Goldman was the only one to break off talks. While Daiwa SMBC also dismissed Panasonic's offer as too low, the difference was that Daiwa spokesman Kenichi Kanda didn't rule out more discussions in the future. (Sumitomo Mitsui and Panasonic both declined to comment.)
Panasonic is eager to add Sanyo's expertise in two areas—batteries and solar panels. Sanyo is the largest global supplier of rechargeable batteries for laptops, cameras, mobile phones, and other portable gizmos. It's also the world's seventh-biggest manufacturer of solar cells. Together, the two companies would have a strong portfolio of green technologies, giving them an edge in developing new batteries for hybrid and electric cars and solar energy equipment for homes and offices.
First, however, Panasonic must negotiate a compromise with Sanyo's investors. A key reason for the dispute stems from the two sides' differing views about how to value the 430 million Sanyo preferred shares held by the three key investors. Each share will be convertible to 10 common shares as of mid-March 2009. Added together, the 4.3 billion shares would account for 70% of Sanyo's stock.
Sumitomo Mitsui Favors the deal
According to sources close to the talks, Panasonic wants the price to reflect the reduction in value of each Sanyo share after such a stock conversion took place. For its part, Goldman is said to contend that Sanyo's current share price already reflects that dilution. The truth lies somewhere in the gray zone between the two claims, says Macquarie Securities analyst David Gibson, who has done the math. "The market has not [fully] factored in the dilution from the preferred shares," Gibson says.
Without Goldman's cooperation, Panasonic would have to woo the remaining two. Getting Sumitomo Mitsui Banking on its side shouldn't be a problem. Apart from being a major shareholder, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking is also Sanyo's main creditor. It has said its top priority is finding a buyer that can help Sanyo pay back the loans, according to someone with knowledge of the discussions between Panasonic and Sanyo. Indeed, it was a top Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Group executive who set up the first secret meetings between the heads of Panasonic and Sanyo a couple of months ago, says this person.
Panasonic might try to lure Daiwa by sweetening the offer a bit. If Daiwa agrees, then what? Panasonic would still face a battle if it asks all Sanyo shareholders to vote on the matter, although it's too early to know whether this might happen and whose side ordinary shareholders would rally behind. The uncertainty has hurt Panasonic's shares, which fell 2.7% on the news—a bigger drop than that sustained by the Tokyo Bourse's electrical machinery index, which slid 1.4%.
By Kenji Hall and Hiroko TashiroHall and Tashiro cover Japan's corporate sector from BusinessWeek's Tokyo bureau .





China November 26, 2008, 8:15AM EST text size: TT
China Cuts Interest Rates to Boost Economy
Beijing leaders have cut key lending rates to attack China's economic problems. In a society where consumers aren't debt-heavy, will it help?
By Frederik Balfour
As they try to tackle China's economic problems, Beijing leaders are not taking any half measures. Earlier this month the government unveiled a massive $586 billion dollar fiscal package of tax cuts and spending projects. Now in a further attempt to goose growth, China's central bank on Nov. 26 announced a massive cut in its one-year benchmark lending rate, slashing it over a full percentage point, to 5.58%. The 108-basis-point cut is the most dramatic the Peoples Bank of China has engineered since the dark days of the Asian financial crisis in 1997. The central bank also cut the reserve rate requirement that banks must set aside against loans and reduced one-year bank deposit rates by 108 basis points, to 2.52%.
Such a large cut in interest rates underscores how concerned China is with bolstering growth, and is a huge contrast to just six months ago when the country was struggling to keep inflation under control. Today's cut is the fourth since September.
Will Cheap Money Help?
It's uncertain how effective the cuts will be. Unlike those in other countries, Chinese consumers are not highly leveraged. Credit-card use is almost nonexistent, although debit cards are popular. Even most auto purchases are made in cash. Similarly, most home buyers put down more than the 20% required downpayment for mortgages, and outright defaults are rare. "The hope will be that this move will trigger more buying interest for homes, as well as support investment, both private as well as the coming wave of public projects," Standard Chartered Bank economist Stephen Green wrote in a note to clients. "But to be honest, rate policy in this environment is a marginal factor—businesses think about possible returns on investments, and households will look at house price prospects."
Whether cheaper money will induce banks to increase their loan books is an open question. Tens of thousands of Chinese manufacturers have gone out of business in recent months, leaving unpaid wages and supplier bills. Property developers are extremely cash-strapped in the face of a dramatic drop in housing turnover, and banks are cautious about extending new loans when they anticipate more defaults because of the economic slowdown.
China's economic outlook has deteriorated rapidly in recent weeks. In midsummer, only pessimists expected China's GDP growth to slow next year to 8%, a level necessary to ensure the absorption of new labor entrants into the workforce. Anything below this could—by Chinese economic standards—be considered a recession. Now economists are following one another with economic downgrades. On Oct. 31, UBS issued a growth forecast for next year of 7.5% (down from 8%). Economists believe about three percentage points of this growth will come from stimulus packages (BusinessWeek.com, 11/23/08).
China's a Must-Buy
However Adrian Mowat, Asian regional strategist at JP Morgan (JPM), says the stimulus measures are a good reason for investors to consider buying Chinese equities. He points out that the stimulus program, focusing on transportation infrastructure, environmental projects, and housing, is a productive investment that will boost growth, in contrast to much of the investment in overcapacity by the private sector that caused China to overheat last year.
What's more, he says, China's stock market was the first to tank last fall, and could lead the way to recovery. Shanghai stocks have stabilized recently at about 64% down on the year. Mowat suggests investors eye core blue-chip equities such as Chinese banks, insurance companies, and telecom operators, which are priced now as if they have no growth prospects at all. "Many investors today say the Chinese economy lost momentum and there is little the government can do, but they are ignoring monetary policy and fiscal policy," says Mowat. "The must-buy is China today.
Balfour is Asia Correspondent for BusinessWeek based in Hong Kong.




(서울=연합인포맥스) 정준화 기자= 윤만호 산업은행 부행장은 29일 "지주회사 체제의 투자은행 그룹 모델이 글로벌 금융위기를 겪으면서 경쟁력이 입증됐다"고 말했다.윤 부행장은 이날 고려대학교에서 열린 '제1회 대한금융공학회 학술대회'에 패널로 참석해 "최근 미국 증권계 IB들의 몰락으로 지주회사 체제하의 IB가 바람직한 투자은행그룹 모델로 부상하고 있다"며 "이러한 모델이 향후 IB시장을 선도할 것"이라고 전망했다.그는 "규모의 경제, 전문인력, 자본력, 고객기반, 리스크관리 측면 등을 감안할때 은행과 증권사 등의 결합이 필요하다"고 설명했다.그는 지주회사 체제하의 IB 이외에 특정 고객별, 산업별 분야에 특화하는 전문IB를 육성해 IB산업의 구조를 이원화 하는 것이 바람직하다고 강조했다.한편 그는 "세계금융산업이 재편되는 상황에서 자본시장통합법이 내년에 시행되는 점을 고려할 때 이번 위기를 한국 자본시장과 경쟁력 있는 투자은행을 육성할 수있는 적기로 활용해야 한다"고 말했다.그는 또 "위기 극복 이후 적극적인 해외진출에 대비해 글로벌화를 미리 준비해야한다"며 "우리나라가 비교 우위를 갖고 있는 아시아 국가에 우선적으로 진출하는 것이 바람직하다"고 덧붙였다.jhjung@yna.co.kr





(서울=연합인포맥스) 황병극 기자= 우리나라가 외환위기 직후와 마찬가지로 또다시 순채무국으로 전환했으나 한국은행은 상환부담을 감안한 수치 등을 고려하면 순채무국 자체에 큰 의미를 부여하기 어렵다고 진단했다.대외채무로 잡힌 수치 중에서 선박수출선수금과 환헤지용 해외차입 등을 단순하게 채무로만 보기 어렵다는 설명이다. 또 외채통계에 포함되지 않는 외국인의 지분성투자가 순회수됨으로써 외채의 감소 없이 대외채권만 줄었다고 평가했다.그러나 일부 전문가들은 당장의 외화유동성 사정이 어려운 상황에서 순채무국으로 전환이 금융시장에 불안심리로 작용할 수 있다고 지적했다.▲채무국 우려할 수준 아니다= 28일 한은은 9월 말 국제투자대조표와 별도로 '상환부담을 감안한 우리나라의 순대외채권'이란 자료를 통해 9월 말 현재 우리나라의 순대외채권이 마이너스 251억달러를 보였으나 상환부담이 적은 외채규모 1천112억달러를 제외하면 실제 순대외채권이 약 861억달러에 이른다고 추정했다.대부투자 66억달러, 선박수출선수금 550억달러, 환헤지용 해외차입 496억달러 등이 대외채무로 분류되나 상환부담이 없어 실제 대외채무로 보기 힘들다는 것이다.한은은 통계상의 착시현상 등으로 외국인의 지분성 투자회수가 순채무국 전환에원인으로 작용했다고 진단했다. 주식투자와 같은 지분투자가 이탈하면서 외채는 줄어들지 않고 그동안 자산으로 잡혔던 대외채권만 줄어들었다는 설명이다.또 금융시장이 발달한 미국, 영국, 프랑스 등 선진국의 경우도 순대외채권이 모두 마이너스를 기록하고 있으며, 현재 우리나라의 외채구조도 경상수지 적자를 보전하려고 차입에 의존했던 외환위기 이전과 다르다고 주장했다.박해식 금융연구원 연구위원은 "순채무국 전환 자체를 시장에서 부정적으로 받아들일 수 있다"면서도 "외국인이 외형적인 수치에 과민하게 반응하고 있고 이것이 국내 투자자들에게 영향을 미칠 수 있다"고 우려했다.박 연구위원은 "그러나 내용을 보면 대외채무 중에서 자동으로 상쇄되는 부분이있는 만큼 채무국 전환 자체를 민감하게 받아들일 필요는 없으며, 정책당국도 IR 등을 통해 현상을 제대로 설명하는 노력을 강화해야 한다"고 주문했다.▲채무국 전환보다 당장 달러부족이 더 문제= 그러나 채무국으로 전환한 것 자체에 큰 의미를 부여하기 어렵다면서도 그동안 달러차입이 많았다는 점에서 향후 글로벌 디레버리징으로 국내에서 달러유동성 문제가 지속될 수 있다고 지적했다.오석태 한국씨티은행 이코노미스트는 "금융시장이 어려운 상황에서 빚이 많다는것은 그만큼 단점으로 작용할 수밖에 없다"며 "현재 달러유동성 문제를 심하게 겪는것도 그동안 달러차입이 많았기 때문이다"고 진단했다.그는 "그나마 외환보유액이 순채무국으로 전환을 막아줬으나 금융기관이 어려워지면서 보유액도 꾸준히 줄고 있다"며 "우리나라의 펀더멘털이 지속적으로 나빠지고있다는 점은 투자심리 자체를 더욱 위축시킬 수 있다"고 우려했다.표한형 현대경제연구원 연구위원은 "선물환 헤지로 달러차입이 늘어난 부분이 있지만 해외에서 국내에서 디레버리징을 지속하면서 금융권에 빌려줬던 달러를 회수하고 있는 것이 더 큰 문제"라고 지적했다.그는 "은행의 단기 외화차입금 상환이 외채감소로 나타나지만 그만큼 달러사정이어려워지고 있다는 의미"라며 "지금은 나중에 유입될 달러자금을 믿고 참아달라고 하기에는 현재의 달러부족이 심각하다"고 말했다.한편 한은은 지난 10월 중에 은행의 단기 외화차입금 상환과 외국인의 채권투자회수 등으로 외채가 230억달러 가량 감소했을 것으로 추정했다.eco@yna.co.kr http://blog.yonhapnews.co.kr/eco28(끝)




(서울=연합인포맥스) 황병극 기자= 우리나라가 해외에서 받을 수 있는 대외채권보다 갚아야 할 대외채무가 더 많은 순채무국으로 전환됐다.또 유동외채비율이 9월 말 현재 94.8%로 6월 말보다 9.2%p 상승했다.한국은행이 28일 발표한 9월 말 국제투자대조표(잠정)에 따르면, 지난 9월 말 현재 우리나라의 순대외채권(대외채권-대외채무)이 마이너스 251억달러로, 6월 말의 17억달러에 비해 268억달러 감소했다.우리나라의 순대외채권이 마이너스로 돌아선 것은 지난 2000년 3월 말 마이너스58억달러에서 6월 말 플러스 3억달러로 전환된 이후 처음이다.대외채권은 9월 말 현재 3천999억9천만달로 3.4분기 중에 223억5천만달러 감소한반면 대외채무가 9월 말 4천251억달러로 분기 중 44억4천만달러 증가한 탓이다.대외채무 중에서 단기외채는 분기 중에 129억4천만달러 늘었고, 장기외채는 84억9천만달러 감소했다. 이에 따라 대외채무 중 단기외채의 비중은 44.6%로 6월 말보다2.6%p 상승했다.또 단기외채와 장기외채 중 1년 이내 만기도래분을 합친 유동외채는 2천271억2천만달러로 분기 중에 62억9천만달러 증가했다. 준비자산에 대한 유동외채의 비율을 의미하는 유동외채비율은 94.8%로 9.2%p 상승했다.부분별로는 은행부분과 기타부분의 대외채무가 해외차입과 무역신용으로 같은 기간에 각각 105억달러와 45억달러씩 증가했다.대외채권 중에서 단기채권이 164억달러, 장기채권이 60억달러 줄었다. 통화당국이 이 기간 환시개입을 지속한 영향으로 준비자산이 184억3천만달러 감소했다.양재룡 한은 국제수지팀장은 "통계상 순대외채권이 마이너스로 전환된 것은 외채통계에 포함되지 않는 주식투자와 같은 외국인의 지분성투자가 급감하면서 외채의 감소 없이 자산으로 잡혔던 대외채권이 줄었기 때문"이라고 진단했다.그는 "대부투자, 선박수출선수금, 환헤지용 해외차입 등 상환부담이 적은 외채가1천112억달러에 달해 이들을 제외한 순대외채권은 861억달러 내외로 추정된다"며 "이를 환산하면 유동외채비율도 94.8%가 아닌 74% 수준으로 낮아진다"고 설명했다.eco@yna.co.kr http://blog.yonhapnews.co.kr/eco28(끝)




(서울=연합인포맥스) 황병극 기자= 우리나라가 해외에서 받을 수 있는 대외채권보다 갚아야 할 대외채무가 더 많은 순채무국으로 전환됐다.또 유동외채비율이 9월 말 현재 94.8%로 6월 말보다 9.2%p 상승했다.한국은행이 28일 발표한 9월 말 국제투자대조표(잠정)에 따르면, 지난 9월 말 현재 우리나라의 순대외채권(대외채권-대외채무)이 마이너스 251억달러로, 6월 말의 17억달러에 비해 268억달러 감소했다.우리나라의 순대외채권이 마이너스로 돌아선 것은 지난 2000년 3월 말 마이너스58억달러에서 6월 말 플러스 3억달러로 전환된 이후 처음이다.대외채권은 9월 말 현재 3천999억9천만달로 3.4분기 중에 223억5천만달러 감소한반면 대외채무가 9월 말 4천251억달러로 분기 중 44억4천만달러 증가한 탓이다.대외채무 중에서 단기외채는 분기 중에 129억4천만달러 늘었고, 장기외채는 84억9천만달러 감소했다. 이에 따라 대외채무 중 단기외채의 비중은 44.6%로 6월 말보다2.6%p 상승했다.또 단기외채와 장기외채 중 1년 이내 만기도래분을 합친 유동외채는 2천271억2천만달러로 분기 중에 62억9천만달러 증가했다. 준비자산에 대한 유동외채의 비율을 의미하는 유동외채비율은 94.8%로 9.2%p 상승했다.부분별로는 은행부분과 기타부분의 대외채무가 해외차입과 무역신용으로 같은 기간에 각각 105억달러와 45억달러씩 증가했다.대외채권 중에서 단기채권이 164억달러, 장기채권이 60억달러 줄었다. 통화당국이 이 기간 환시개입을 지속한 영향으로 준비자산이 184억3천만달러 감소했다.양재룡 한은 국제수지팀장은 "통계상 순대외채권이 마이너스로 전환된 것은 외채통계에 포함되지 않는 주식투자와 같은 외국인의 지분성투자가 급감하면서 외채의 감소 없이 자산으로 잡혔던 대외채권이 줄었기 때문"이라고 진단했다.그는 "대부투자, 선박수출선수금, 환헤지용 해외차입 등 상환부담이 적은 외채가1천112억달러에 달해 이들을 제외한 순대외채권은 861억달러 내외로 추정된다"며 "이를 환산하면 유동외채비율도 94.8%가 아닌 74% 수준으로 낮아진다"고 설명했다.



(서울=연합인포맥스) 황병극 기자= 우리나라 기관투자가가 해외에서 투자한 외화증권 투자잔액이 급감했다. 자산운용사들이 해외주식 투자에서 대량으로 평가손을 입은데다 보험사들이 보유한 외화채권을 판 것이 가장 큰 이유이다.한국은행이 27일 발표한 3.4분기 기관투자가의 외화증권 투자동향에 따르면, 국내 기관투자가의 해외증권 투자잔액은 9월 말 현재 723억7천만달러로 지난 6월 말의952억2천만달러에 비해 무려 228억5천만달러 줄었다.기관투자가들이 이 기간에 순매도한 외화증권은 54억9천만달러에 그쳤다. 그러나이들은 주가하락 등으로 173억6천만달러에 달하는 평가손실을 입었다.특히 3.4분기 중 자산운용사의 투자잔액 감소가 전체 감소액인 228억5천만달러의85%에 달하는 193억7천만달러로 집계됐다. 리만브라더스의 파산보호신청에 따른 미국 금융불안 심화 등으로 글로벌 주가가 폭락했기 때문이다.주식의 투자잔액이 188억2천만달러 급감한 것도 이런 이유다. 또 같은 기간 보험사의 주식투자 잔액은 1억8천74040억달러 가량 줄었다.채권의 투자잔액은 9월 말 현재 196억9천500만달러로 3.4분기에 33억7천만달러 감소했다. 이 기간 보험사의 해외채권 보유잔액 감소가 19억7천950억달러에 이른다.거주자가 외국에서 발행한 외화표시증권인 코리안 페이퍼는 외국환은행이 투자를회수해 9월 말 현재 120억2천790만달러로 6월 말에 비해 6억6천650억원 줄었다.